Gold’s three-year bull market officially ends after 150% rally

Gold's three-year bull market has officially ended, according to Bloomberg, capping a rally that saw prices surge roughly 150% from late 2022 before peaking near $5,586 an ounce on January 29. The metal has since fallen into bear market territory, breaching the $4,000 level on multiple occasions and suffering its worst quarter in 13 years in the three months through June.bloomberg+2

A Painful Correction

The selloff has been driven by a shift in monetary policy expectations. The rate-cut thesis that propelled gold to record highs reversed sharply in early 2026, sending investors fleeing from gold-backed exchange-traded funds. World Gold Council data shows ETFs recorded net outflows of 16 metric tonnes in May alone, with redemptions continuing into June. iShares BlackRock, Inc. ↗ 1.72% reported that U.S.-listed commodity ETPs recorded $6.8 billion in outflows in June, the second-largest monthly figure on record.goldsilver+3

Gold has fallen roughly 7.8% year-to-date, with CNBC Comcast Corporation ↘ 0.60% reporting that about 16% was wiped off the metal in the second quarter alone — its steepest quarterly decline since Q2 2013. The drop came as Treasury yields rose and the U.S. dollar strengthened on expectations that interest rates will remain elevated longer than markets had anticipated.reuters+1

Divided Outlook

Bloomberg reports that while the bull market has ended, there is limited evidence of large-scale short positioning, leaving gold in an uncertain transitional phase. Morningstar ↗ 2.84% on Sunday cut its assumed average gold price to $4,400 for 2026-2028, down from $4,900 previously.morningstar+2

JPMorgan ↗ 1.64% revised its outlook sharply on July 3, now forecasting gold will average $4,300 in the third quarter and $4,500 in the fourth — a dramatic pullback from its $6,000 year-end call made just weeks earlier on June 9. Macquarie is forecasting an average of $4,641 per ounce for the full year.cnbc+1

The Secular Bull Case

Not everyone is convinced the structural story has broken. Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS PAMP, maintains her 2026 average price forecast of $4,500 and a bull-case target of $5,800, arguing the correction has reset positioning without undermining gold's structural drivers. "Gold is still expected to average $4,500/oz in 2026, with a new higher all-time high of $5,800/oz a fair target for the second half of the year," Shiels told Kitco News in May.kitco+1

Central banks continue to accumulate, adding 41 tonnes in May — the second-highest monthly total of 2026. As of Tuesday morning, spot gold was trading near $4,169, holding above $4,100 support but below the $4,200 resistance zone.ccn+1