Goldman Sachs sharply raises chip equipment spending forecast through 2028

Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ↘ 1.28% issued a sweeping upward revision to its global wafer fab equipment spending forecasts on Saturday, projecting the semiconductor capital expenditure boom will accelerate through the end of the decade as memory chips, advanced foundry processes, and new entrants like SpaceX and Tesla drive unprecedented demand for manufacturing tools.

A Multi-Driver Spending Cycle

In a research note dated August 23, the bank raised its WFE spending estimates for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to $150 billion, $218 billion, and $281 billion respectively — increases of 6%, 17%, and 35% compared to prior forecasts. Year-over-year growth expectations were lifted to 36%, 45%, and 29% for each year, up from previous estimates of 28%, 32%, and 12%.moomoo+2

Goldman Sachs analyst Giuni Lee cited stronger-than-expected semiconductor capital expenditure disclosures during the second-quarter earnings season as the catalyst for the revision. The bank described a structural shift in industry demand from a single-driver model to a multi-driver structure, with DRAM, foundry, NAND, and logic segments expanding simultaneously.techflowpost+1

DRAM and Foundry Lead Near-Term Growth

DRAM received the largest upward revision, with WFE forecasts raised to $48 billion, $72 billion, and $97 billion for 2026 through 2028 — growth rates of 50%, 50%, and 35%. The migration to HBM4 memory, which demands higher through-silicon via density and finer micro-bump pitch than HBM3, is the direct catalyst. Capital expenditure forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix ↗ 0.39% were raised by 22% and 19% respectively.kucoin+1

In foundry, Goldman raised forecasts to $58 billion, $84 billion, and $109 billion, with growth of 45%, 45%, and 30%. TSMC Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ↘ 0.35% received an $8 billion annual capex forecast increase for each year, driven by higher equipment intensity for its N2 process — the company's first mass-production node using gate-all-around transistor architecture.techflowpost+1

Terafab and Equipment Beneficiaries

The logic segment saw its 2028 forecast jump 43% from prior estimates to $53 billion, fueled by stronger Intel ↘ 1.15% demand and approximately $16.8 billion in initial Terafab equipment commitments from SpaceX and Tesla.kucoin+1

Goldman maintained a bullish stance on equipment stocks, naming Applied Materials ↘ 0.35%, Lam Research ↘ 0.92%, ASML ↘ 0.17%, and Tokyo Electron among its key recommendations, noting that order visibility and profit margins for equipment suppliers are on an upward trajectory through 2028.techflowpost