ASML shares drop sharply after AI leaders call for slower development

ASML Holding ↗ 1.04% shares fell roughly 7% on Monday, September 14, closing at $1,575.15 on Nasdaq ↘ 2.56% and approximately €1,387.80 on Euronext Amsterdam, after an essay by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei calling for deliberately slowing frontier AI development triggered a broad semiconductor sell-off. OpenAI's Sam Altman and Elon Musk publicly backed the proposal, amplifying fears that a more measured pace of AI investment could reduce demand for the advanced chipmaking equipment ASML monopolizes.tikr+2

The sell-off hit chip-equipment makers across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index PHLX Semiconductor Index ↗ 0.38% posted its worst session since July, with Applied Materials ↘ 0.72% and Lam Research ↘ 0.96% each falling about 6%, while the broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dipped only around 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Morgan Stanley separately trimmed its ASML target from €1,930 to €1,700 on valuation grounds.ad-hoc-news+1

Analysts Hold Firm

Despite the drop, several Wall Street firms reiterated positive views. Bernstein analyst David Dai maintained a Buy rating with a €2,500 target. On the same day as the sell-off, JPMorgan analysts published a note following a meeting with CFO Roger Dassen, reporting that ASML is examining ways to produce more than 110 EUV lithography machines in 2028, up from at least 80 planned for 2027. "Management indicated that demand remains very very strong," the JPMorgan note said, adding that most new orders are now for 2028 delivery and that the company's main constraint is assembly speed, not supply chain.marketscreener+2

JPMorgan also noted that Intel ↘ 0.05% is expected to become "a meaningful customer again" in 2027, while Musk's planned Terafab is "developing" as a new client.investing

Order Book Versus Sentiment

The tension at the heart of the sell-off is between ASML's own fundamentals and the market's anxiety about future AI capital spending. On its Q2 2026 earnings call in July, ASML reported net sales of €9.3 billion — above the high end of guidance — with a 54% gross margin and raised its full-year revenue outlook to €43 billion to €45 billion. Dassen told analysts the company was "now close to being fully covered with orders for Low-NA EUV" for 2027 and had already received orders stretching into 2028.tikr

CEO Christophe Fouquet reinforced that outlook last week at the groundbreaking of a new Dutch factory. "I don't think we're at the end of (the AI boom), to be honest," he told Reuters. ASML's EUV machines, which cost roughly $200 million each, are sold out through 2027, while its next-generation $400 million High NA tools have drawn production commitments from Samsung, SK Hynix ↘ 0.46%, and TSMC Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ↘ 1.02% — all targeting adoption by 2028 to 2030.economictimes

What Comes Next

The next test arrives on October 14, when ASML reports Q3 results. Management guided for €11 billion to €12 billion in net sales and a 55% to 57% gross margin. If bookings hold and commentary on 2027–2028 order coverage remains intact, the sell-off will look like a sentiment-driven repricing of a stock that was already trading at roughly 49 times trailing earnings. If that language softens, the market's fears about a slower AI build-out earn a second look.tikr