Nomura warns of ‘epic’ chip shortage, countering peak narrative

Even as chip and AI infrastructure stocks sold off Wednesday after Bloomberg reported that Meta Platforms ↘ 0.04% is building a cloud business to sell excess computing capacity, Nomura pushed back against the growing "peak semiconductor" narrative with a 119-page report warning that an unprecedented supply chain mismatch is looming in the second half of 2026.

Supply Bottlenecks Deepen

In the Anchor Report published June 30, Nomura's analysts argued that capital expenditures by cloud giants will extend through 2027 and that the market will face "the most severe supply chain mismatch in history" later this year. While Taiwan Semiconductor ↗ 0.95% is aggressively expanding wafer-level packaging capacity, the true bottlenecks are shifting to smaller components — wafer-level substrates, printed circuit boards, copper-clad laminates, high-end capacitors, power management ICs, and optical components.morningstar.com+1

With Nvidia's ↘ 0.33% Rubin architecture and Amazon Amazon.com, Inc. ↘ 2.16% Web Services' Trainium 3 entering mass production in the second half of 2026, Nomura warned that building new greenfield capacity typically takes two years, meaning supply constraints will persist through 2027. The broad-based shortage will not only limit AI server growth but also strain non-AI segments including consumer electronics and automotive.moomoo.com

Bullish Forecasts Underpinned by Data Center Boom

Nomura forecasts AI server revenue growth of 78% in 2026 and 76% in 2027, driven by robust demand and cost-push inflation. The firm's proprietary tracking shows global data center projects have risen from 240 to 280, with gigawatt-scale projects increasing to roughly 50. The bank expects 32 GW of new computing capacity to be deployed in 2027, up from a prior estimate of 28 GW.news.futunn.com+1

On this basis, Nomura reaffirmed Buy ratings on nine Asian AI technology companies — including Taiwan Semiconductor, ASE Technology ↗ 2.38%, and MediaTek — raising all target prices and advising investors to buy on weakness. Taiwan Semiconductor's target was lifted from NT$2,820 to NT$3,425.moomoo.com+1

Meta's Cloud Move Rattles, But Doesn't Break, the Bull Case

Wednesday's selloff in chip names was triggered by Meta's reported plans to rent out surplus AI compute to outside developers, a move that raised questions about whether hyperscalers have overbuilt. Meta shares rose sharply on the news, while names across the AI hardware supply chain declined. Nomura's report, arriving the day before Meta's cloud plans surfaced, offered a counterpoint: hyperscalers "can't stop spending" because rising memory costs and expanding data center blueprints lock them into sustained investment.seekingalpha.com+5