Global shipping rates hit post-pandemic high as Hormuz traffic plunges

Container shipping rates have surged to their highest levels since the pandemic-era supply chain crisis of 2022, driven by a combination of rush shipments ahead of U.S. tariff deadlines, ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and port congestion that has strained global capacity.

Rates Surge Across Major Trade Lanes

Drewry's World Container Index climbed 9% in the week ending July 2 to $4,530 per 40-foot container, marking its highest reading since the post-pandemic peak. By July 9, the index rose a further 2% to $4,639, driven largely by higher rates on the Asia-Europe corridor. Freight rates on the Shanghai-to-New York route jumped 11% to $7,902 per container, while the Shanghai-to-Los Angeles route rose 10% to $6,349.drewry+4

The rally has been sustained for roughly 10 consecutive weeks across nearly every major trade lane. S&P Global's ↗ 0.50% Platts Container Rate Index confirmed the trend, climbing 80% over 30 days through late June to reach its highest level since April 2022.imarinenews+1

Tariff Front-Running and Hormuz Crisis Converge

Two forces are compressing supply simultaneously. U.S. importers have been accelerating shipments to beat potential tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on goods from dozens of countries, pushing June import volumes to 2.4 million TEU — near pandemic-era records. The National Retail Federation forecasts July volumes of 2.47 million TEU, which would surpass the previous monthly record set in May 2022.reuters+1

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz crisis has intensified. After Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels this week, tanker traffic through the passage fell to just 13 crossings on Wednesday, down from a daily average of 33 the prior week, according to CNBC citing data from Kpler. The BBC reported only 23 tankers and cargo vessels traversed the strait that day. The UN's International Maritime Organization called for "maximum restraint and de-escalation" as thousands of seafarers remain stranded.bbc+2

Carriers Reap Windfall

The rate environment has transformed the outlook for ocean carriers. A.P. Moller-Maersk A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S on June 29 raised its full-year underlying EBITDA guidance to $8 billion to $10 billion, up from a prior range of $4.5 billion to $7 billion, citing "sustained increase in spot market rates" and stronger-than-expected demand. The company now projects underlying operating profit of $2 billion to $4 billion, a reversal from earlier guidance that included the possibility of a $1.5 billion loss.maritime-executive+2

Shipping consultancy Linerlytica estimates global container throughput demand is growing at 7.3%, outpacing fleet capacity growth of 5.4% — the widest gap since late 2024. Nearly 11% of the global container fleet is waiting at anchorages outside ports, a new high since 2022.imarinenews