Gallup finds tech workers who skip AI face triple layoff risk

Nearly every corporate leader surveyed by consulting firm Mercer expects artificial intelligence to eliminate jobs at their companies within two years, according to the firm's 2026 Global Talent Trends report — a finding that underscores growing alarm about AI's reshaping of the labor market even as evidence of its actual productivity gains remains mixed.

The report, which drew on responses from 825 C-suite leaders and 1,650 HR leaders worldwide, found that 99% of executives anticipate AI will lead to at least some headcount reductions by 2028. A full 98% said they are considering changes to organizational structures over the same period, and 65% expect 11% to 30% of their workforce to be redeployed or reskilled due to AI.letsdatascience+2

Young Workers Bear the Brunt

Entry-level professionals aged 22 to 27 face the steepest risk, as companies automate the administrative, analytical, and operational tasks that once served as career on-ramps for new graduates. A separate survey by Oliver Wyman found the share of CEOs planning to reduce junior roles surged from 17% to 43% within a single year, while 33% are shifting their workforce mix toward mid-level positions. Rather than conducting mass layoffs of existing staff, many firms are simply closing the intake valve for early-career hires.sea.peoplemattersglobal+3

AI Non-Adoption Emerges as a Risk Factor

A Gallup survey of more than 23,000 U.S. workers, published in June 2026, found that tech employees who use AI less than once a month face an 18% predicted layoff probability — three times the 6% risk faced by regular AI users. The gap persists after controlling for age, education, and sector, according to The Straits Times. Outside the tech industry, infrequent AI users also face higher layoff risk, though the disparity is smaller.aiweekly+1

A Disconnect Between Expectation and Evidence

The executive consensus arrives amid real workforce disruption. According to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, employers announced 97,000 job cuts in May 2026 — the highest May figure since 2020 — with AI cited as the primary reason for 40% of those reductions. Yet the Mercer report also revealed a morale crisis: just 44% of employees say they are thriving at work, down from 66% in 2024 and below even pandemic-era levels, while the share of workers concerned about AI-related job loss jumped from 28% to 40%.finance.yahoo+2

As Tom's Hardware noted in its analysis of the findings, "executives are cutting jobs for an AI future that hasn't fully arrived yet" — a European Central Bank study found no clear difference in job creation or destruction between firms that use AI heavily and those that do not.tomshardware