Global debt tops $365 trillion as IIF warns of rollover crunch

Global debt surpassed $365 trillion during the first half of 2026, climbing by more than $10 trillion in six months, with emerging markets accounting for the bulk of the increase, according to the Institute of International Finance's latest Global Debt Monitor published on September 23. The report reveals that emerging market government debt has reached approximately 78% of GDP — the highest level in data stretching back to 1880, more than double the ratio recorded during the 2008 financial crisis and exceeding peaks from both World Wars and the Great Depression.forbes+3

A Borrowing Boom With Fewer Buffers

Emerging market debt swelled by $6.5 trillion in the first half of the year, pushing the total past $110 trillion, with China serving as the primary engine behind the increase. South Africa, Argentina, and Egypt also contributed to the surge, which lifted emerging market debt-to-GDP ratios to record levels above 235%.cryptobriefing+1

The $10 trillion global increase represents a slowdown from the $21 trillion rise recorded in the same period last year, a deceleration the IIF attributed to escalating interest rates, higher debt servicing costs, and geopolitical disruptions. Yet the pace remained above the five-year average, with governments and non-financial corporations reaching unprecedented borrowing levels.forbes

The global debt-to-GDP ratio held steady at around 305%, a figure the IIF warned is less reassuring than it appears. Higher inflation has boosted nominal GDP, creating a "mathematical artifact" that masks deeper vulnerabilities beneath apparently stable ratios.cryptobriefing

A Wall of Maturities

The report highlights a looming refinancing challenge. Emerging markets face $9 trillion in debt redemptions, while developed economies must roll over more than $20 trillion in maturing bonds and loans. S&P Global ↗ 0.98% estimates that rated corporate maturities between now and 2029 will reach roughly $12.4 trillion, with $3.4 trillion in speculative-grade securities particularly exposed to rising borrowing costs.forbes

Companies that locked in ultra-low pandemic-era rates near 2.5% may now face refinancing costs of 5% to 7%, a structural rather than temporary burden for heavily indebted borrowers. JPMorgan ↘ 0.59% CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concern earlier this year, stating, "there will be some kind of bond crisis".forbes

Fragile Calm

Despite record issuance, investment-grade credit spreads have remained near 20-year lows, and steady demand from insurers, pension funds, and foreign investors has absorbed the supply without visible distress. But the IIF cautioned that this calm is contingent on sustained growth, cooperative central banks, and continued investor appetite — any of which could falter. A shock in any sector, from a chaotic Treasury sell-off to difficulties among AI-related borrowers financing data center expansions, could reverberate through banks, non-bank financial institutions, and borrowers across a system carrying more debt than at any prior point in history.forbes