geopolitics

Vortexa warns crude oil markets face supply crunch as exports hit record lows

Maritime intelligence firm Vortexa warned on August 18 that crude oil markets are "underpricing an impending supply tightness," driven by a simultaneous collapse in exports from Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States that has pushed combined shipments from…

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Nikkei drops sharply as US-Iran truce expiry rattles Asian markets

Asian equity markets fell broadly on Tuesday as the expiry of a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire and surging global bond yields crushed risk appetite, sending Japan's Nikkei 225 to its worst session in weeks and triggering a dramatic intraday reversal in…

European stocks slide as fading Iran deal hopes lift oil and bond yields

European equities fell on Tuesday as rising crude oil prices, surging bond yields, and dwindling natural gas reserves converged to paint a picture of prolonged energy supply disruption across the continent.

UAE suspends all trade with Iran after missile attack

The United Arab Emirates announced on Tuesday that it was suspending all trade, commercial exchanges, and financial transactions with Iran after accusing Tehran of firing two ballistic missiles toward the country — the first such attack since May and a…

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Top global PE firms made zero deals in China in 2026

Ten of the largest global private capital firms have made no new publicly disclosed equity investments in China in the first seven months of 2026, according to a Financial Times analysis of data from Dealogic, marking a new low in…

Latin American oil exports surge as Hormuz crisis reshapes global trade

The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has turned Latin America into one of the biggest beneficiaries of a convulsion in global energy markets, with the region's top producers boosting output and exports as buyers rush to find alternatives to…

Trump rules out Iran talks as Hormuz standoff deepens

President Donald Trump declared on Tuesday that no negotiations with Iran are underway or planned, even as Tehran's top negotiator insisted the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Washington meets a sweeping set of demands — a standoff that…

Oil markets price in prolonged Hormuz crisis at $90 a barrel

Global oil markets have shifted from treating the Strait of Hormuz crisis as a temporary shock to pricing it as a structural feature of the energy landscape, with crude stabilizing around $90 a barrel — roughly 50% above levels at…

Oil tops $91 as US-Iran ceasefire expires, bond yields hit multidecade highs

Global markets faced fresh turbulence on Tuesday as the 60-day US-Iran truce expired and Tehran announced it would shift to a "fully offensive" military posture, pushing Brent crude above $91 a barrel and sending bond yields higher across the world.

Oil rises as Trump signals no rush to end Iran war

Oil advanced for a third consecutive day on Monday as prospects for a near-term resolution of the US-Iran conflict receded, with President Donald Trump signaling he has no interest in extending an expiring agreement with Tehran.

US dollar slides to two-month low as Fed hike bets fade

The US dollar slid to its lowest level in more than two months on Monday as a string of soft economic data led traders to sharply reduce bets on further Federal Reserve interest rate increases, boosting rival currencies from the…

European gas prices hit three-week high on Hormuz tensions, low storage

European natural gas prices climbed to their highest level in three weeks on Monday as escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz disrupted LNG shipments and intensified concerns over the continent's ability to replenish storage ahead of winter.

Iran threatens military attack if US fails to honor deal within weeks

A senior Iranian official warned on Monday that Tehran will launch a "timely and precise" military attack to break the US naval blockade if Washington does not fulfill its commitments under a June peace deal within weeks, marking a declared…

Iran secretly prepared for wider war during US peace talks, Journal reports

Even as Iranian diplomats engaged with Washington over a memorandum of understanding signed in June, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was quietly reorganizing Iran's military and security apparatus for a broader confrontation, according to a Wall Street Journal News Corp investigation…

Gold holds near highs as Strait of Hormuz standoff keeps markets on edge

Global commodity markets opened the week in a cautious but elevated posture on August 17, as the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continued to underpin safe-haven demand for gold and keep oil prices elevated. Iran's position barring transit…

Oil edges higher as Israel-Hezbollah clashes and Iran sanctions loom

Brent crude surged roughly 6% over the past week, settling at $88.52 a barrel on Friday after attacks on two Abu Dhabi National Oil Company vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and a breakdown in ceasefire negotiations between the United…

Trump hails Mecca defense pact as ‘big, bold’ first step

US President Donald Trump endorsed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, calling the trilateral pact a "big, bold, and important first step" toward regional self-defense in a post on Truth Social.

Covert Gulf oil flows keep prices in check as reserves dwindle

Middle Eastern oil producers are quietly ferrying large volumes of crude out of the Persian Gulf through covert channels, helping contain energy prices even as the U.S.-Iran war stretches into its sixth month with no resolution in sight. The shipments,…

Brent crude carries 10.7% risk premium amid Hormuz standoff

Brent crude settled at $88.52 per barrel on Friday, carrying a 10.7% risk premium above Goldman Sachs's The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. estimated spot fair value of roughly $80, as competing U.S. and Iranian claims over the Strait of Hormuz…

U.S. warns allies to pick sides in AI race with China

The United States is preparing to deliver an ultimatum to dozens of countries: align with Washington's artificial intelligence coalition or risk exclusion from its technology ecosystem. A draft State Department letter, reviewed by Reuters, warns 35 signatories of a U.S.…

European stocks snap four-week winning streak on oil surge, Iran tensions

European equities closed lower on Friday, with the STOXX 600 snapping a four-week winning streak as surging crude oil prices driven by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and a surprise drop in American retail sales weighed on sentiment across the region.

European bond yields hit multi-year highs as Hormuz tensions escalate

European government bond yields rose sharply on Friday, August 14, with Germany's 30-year yield climbing to around 3.72% — its highest level since 2011 — and France's 10-year yield breaching 4% for the first time since 2009, as the ongoing…

Trump says he will declare Strait of Hormuz a US territory

President Donald Trump declared Friday that he would "pretty soon" claim the Strait of Hormuz as "a territory of the United States," escalating his rhetoric over the strategic waterway as the U.S.-Iran conflict approaches its sixth month with no end…

Global stocks slip as U.S.-Iran standoff lifts oil prices

Global equities retreated on Friday as rising oil prices driven by the deepening US-Iran standoff dampened investor appetite for risk, even as softer US economic data tempered expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.

Oil heads for weekly gains as Hormuz impasse deepens

Oil prices rose on Friday and were on track for weekly gains of nearly 5–6% as the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis continued to disrupt global energy flows, with Asian refiners scrambling for alternative crude supplies and European natural gas…

Global stocks hover near records as US inflation dims rate hike odds

Global stocks hovered near record highs on Friday as benign US inflation data released this week pushed back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, with traders now pricing only a 35% chance of a September increase, down from 55%…

Maersk CEO says full Suez Canal return on track for 2026

Shipping giant Maersk A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S has signaled that it expects the full resumption of navigation through the Suez Canal by the end of 2026, as the company continues gradually expanding services through the Red Sea corridor even…

Analysts warn Hormuz stalemate could push oil to $120 a barrel

The prolonged standoff between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz is raising the prospect of oil prices surging to $120–$140 per barrel, analysts warn, as global fuel inventories deplete and the physical market approaches…

Diesel crack spread hits record $98 after Houthi refinery strike

A Houthi drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery sent the diesel crack spread above $98 a barrel on Thursday, setting a record high and underscoring how geopolitical disruptions continue to ripple through global fuel markets even as crude oil…

Houthis claim drone strike on Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan

Yemen's Houthi group claimed responsibility on Thursday for a two-drone strike on Saudi Aramco's oil refinery in Jazan, southern Saudi Arabia, in the latest escalation of cross-border attacks targeting the kingdom's energy infrastructure amid broader regional tensions.