Putin chose to escalate Ukraine war, The Economist reports

Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen to escalate the war in Ukraine after weeks of internal deliberation, driven by a belief that ending the conflict without capturing all of Donbas would put his life in danger, according to a report published by The Economist on August 30.economist

Sources close to the Kremlin told the outlet that Putin confided to associates at one point during the war: "They will hang me". The remark reflects what The Economist describes as the "criminal logic" of a regime that tolerates violence but does not forgive failure. Putin is now reportedly prepared to throw an additional 300,000 to 400,000 troops into the fight, relying on coercion by regional governments rather than announcing a politically toxic new mobilization wave.meduza+2

Growing Discontent at Home

The decision to escalate comes as domestic support for the war erodes. Independent polling from the Levada Centre shows 57% of Russians now describe the situation as "tense," citing rising casualties, mobilization fears, and uncertainty about the future. The mood among the Russian elite is grimmer still. "There is a growing feeling that the tsar is naked," one insider told The Economist, with the consensus being that nearly five years of war amount to a failure regardless of the outcome.united24media+1

Putin himself broke a long silence on Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian oil refineries and logistics hubs on August 22, accusing Kyiv of opening a "Pandora's box" and vowing severe retaliation. Earlier that day, he dismissed any prospect of peace negotiations, telling his political party the military operation would move "only forward".united24media

Fears of Broader Escalation

Western intelligence agencies are bracing for what comes next. CIA Director John Ratcliffe made an unexpected trip to Moscow on August 25, reportedly delivering a "grim assessment" of Russia's military and economic trajectory and urging the Kremlin to negotiate before its position deteriorates further, according to The New York Times. A longtime Putin associate told The Economist that the Russian leader interpreted the visit as a sign of American hesitation, much as he read a similar visit by former CIA Director William Burns in November 2021 — months before the full-scale invasion.english.nv+1

The Economist reported that Russia is likely to intensify hybrid warfare and sabotage operations targeting European supply routes to Ukraine, with Western intelligence services believing Moscow could strike European factories producing military equipment for Kyiv. On the nuclear front, State Duma deputy Alexei Zhuravlev openly called for tactical nuclear strikes against Ukraine in a Telegram address on Sunday. "If we need to strike, we will strike," he said. Bloomberg has reported that Putin could consider tactical nuclear weapons as a last resort, though there is no evidence such a decision has been made, and China has warned Moscow against crossing that threshold.kyivpost+2

Russia recently tested a nuclear-capable missile following Ratcliffe's visit, though the Defense Ministry did not disclose which missile was used. Meanwhile, Western intelligence estimates indicate Moscow is losing roughly 6,000 more troops each month than it can recruit, underscoring the manpower crisis driving the shift toward long-range strikes against Ukrainian civilians.united24media+1