Israel exit polls show no clear winner as turnout surges

Israelis voted on Tuesday, October 27, in their first national election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023. Early exit polls suggested no clear winner, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, holding a clear path to a majority, CNN reported. The vote falls one week before the US midterm elections on November 3. Analysts say the two contests together could decide how the US-Israeli war with Iran resumes, if it does, and where relations between Washington and Jerusalem go next.cnn.com

Trump's endorsement and the delayed strikes

President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu on October 18 and repeated his support on October 25 on Truth Social. "Vote for Bibi Netanyahu for Prime Minister, we have to finish the job that we started!" he wrote, according to CNBC. Trump also warned that if Israel picked "the wrong Leader," America would have to do the work itself and that "I am not inclined to do so," the BBC reported.cnbc.com+1

Netanyahu said on the eve of the vote that Trump was ready to "finally, finally, remove the Iranian threat," but only if Netanyahu stays in power, Reuters reported. Axios reported that the two leaders discussed a major new operation before the elections, and that Trump grew hesitant and decided to wait until afterward. The Financial Times reported that Israel had planned strikes around October 10 and that Trump opposed them, DW noted. The White House told Reuters that the US "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections."usnews.com+2

Little change expected on Iran

Experts expect Israel's Iran policy to stay largely the same whoever wins. "Overall, I do not expect Israel's policy toward Iran and its proxies to undergo dramatic changes, regardless of the future government's composition," Raz Zimmt of the Institute for National Security Studies told DW. He added that any escalation depends far more on Trump than on Israel's prime minister. Eisenkot has backed the strikes on Iran, but he argues that military force cannot topple the Islamic Republic, Al Jazeera reported.aljazeera.com+1

Bracing for renewed attacks

The US and Israel have reportedly drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran after November 3, CNBC reported. Many Iranians expect fighting to resume once both elections are over. "I think there will be more fighting whether Netanyahu wins or Eisenkot or someone else," one Tehran resident told Al Jazeera.cnbc.com+1

Israeli media have speculated that Netanyahu could order strikes as caretaker prime minister if coalition talks stall, the BBC reported. One Western diplomat told the BBC that after the midterms Trump "will be in legacy mode." In the US, support for Israel has become a campaign issue, with some Democratic candidates calling for changes to military aid, NewsNation reported.bbc.co.uk+1