Panama Canal revenue to beat forecast amid Hormuz crisis

The Panama Canal expects fiscal 2026 revenue to exceed its initial $5.2 billion forecast after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz rerouted global shipping traffic through the waterway, incoming canal chief Ilya Espino de Marotta said in an interview on Thursday.bloomberg+1

Revenue for the fiscal year ending September 30 will be "a little bit more" than the earlier estimate, Espino de Marotta told Bloomberg, citing higher traffic volumes and surging auction payments from vessels competing for transit slots. At the peak of the Hormuz disruption, the canal handled 40 to 41 ships per day, well above its normal throughput of 34 to 35, she said. Traffic has since stabilized at 36 to 38 vessels daily, with bookings for June and July remaining strong.oceancrew+1

LNG and Oil Tankers Drive the Surge

The revenue boost has been driven in large part by liquefied natural gas tankers, as buyers in Japan, China, and South Korea turned to U.S. suppliers to replace volumes from Middle Eastern producers such as Qatar that were disrupted by the Iran conflict. Oil tankers carrying U.S. crude to Asia also increased, with exports via the canal exceeding 200,000 barrels per day in April, near the highest level since July 2022, according to Kpler data cited by Bloomberg.oilprice+1

The canal is now averaging one LNG tanker transit per day, a trade flow that had diminished in recent years as European buyers absorbed U.S. supply following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.oceancrew

Capacity Strain and What Comes Next

The traffic surge has pushed the canal close to its operational limits. BIMCO, the shipping industry association, reported that daily transits rose 8% year-on-year to an average of 38 vessels, with average waiting times jumping 50% to 47 hours. Auction prices for last-minute transit slots nearly tripled to almost $400,000, with one tanker paying $4 million to skip the queue in April.splash247+3

Despite the strain, the Panama Canal Authority told Reuters Thomson Reuters Corporation ↘ 1.87% it is not planning transit restrictions for the remainder of 2026, citing water conservation measures and historically high reservoir levels. Espino de Marotta, who takes over as administrator in September for a seven-year term, said the authority is pursuing an $8.5 billion infrastructure plan including a new dam, two ports, and an LPG pipeline, with construction expected to begin in late 2027.gcaptain+2