Morgan Stanley calls salt ‘the new oil’ as sodium-ion batteries rise

Morgan Stanley ↘ 1.28% has declared the dawn of a "New Oil Age" — not for petroleum, but for salt. In a note to clients published in late June, analyst Jack Lu and his team forecast that sodium-ion batteries will surge from roughly 2% of global battery deployment in 2027 to 20% by 2030 and 37% by 2035, positioning ordinary sodium chloride as a commodity of growing strategic importance.Moomoo News+2

An $800 Billion Investment Wave

The bank projects the sodium-ion battery market will reach 830 gigawatt-hours of annual capacity by 2030 and 2.4 terawatt-hours by 2035, requiring approximately $800 billion in new investment to support that scale. Lu's team argues this is "not a niche chemical experiment, but the emergence of an $800 billion investment wave by 2035 as the technology scales up from pilot stages to industrial deployment," as the Financial Times News Corp ↘ 0.11% reported.ft+2

Sodium-ion batteries are gaining favor because they cost 30% to 40% less than lithium iron phosphate batteries and perform better in cold climates, retaining more than 90% of their charge in extreme cold where lithium-ion capacity drops by roughly half. Morgan Stanley argues these properties will make solar and wind energy projects profitable in northern regions previously considered economically unviable.Oninvest+2

GM Identified as Early Mover

Among U.S. automakers, Morgan Stanley singled out General Motors ↘ 0.09% as having an "early foothold" in sodium-ion technology. Earlier in June, GM announced a partnership with Peak Energy, a Denver-based startup, to develop next-generation sodium-ion battery cells for grid-scale energy storage, with GM retaining exclusive U.S. manufacturing rights. The collaboration is expected to yield cells ready for mass production by 2028 at the earliest.CNBC+3

GM's vice president of battery and sustainability, Kurt Kelty, said the company's sodium-ion development "will drive energy density higher, with the potential to outperform more mature chemistries, including LFP, over time". Peak Energy claims its passively cooled sodium-ion systems can reduce storage costs by 20% compared to conventional lithium-ion systems.Battery-News+3

Broader Industry Implications

Morgan Stanley expects sodium-ion technology to trigger industry consolidation, with salt-based alternatives displacing smaller lithium-ion battery suppliers that compete solely on price, shifting market share toward major players like CATL Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. The bank also noted the transition could reduce global copper demand by approximately 200,000 metric tons.Oninvest+1

Ford Motor ↘ 0.79% has taken a different path, announcing its Ford Energy subsidiary for large-scale lithium-based battery storage, while China's BYD and CATL have already begun mass production of sodium-ion cells for compact vehicles on the road today.thecorner+1