Gold hovers near $4,470 as central bank buying hits record pace

Central banks purchased a record 288.9 tonnes of gold on a net basis during the second quarter of 2026, a 62 percent jump from the same period a year earlier and the strongest second quarter in the World Gold Council's data history. The buying spree, led by Poland and China, marks a fivefold increase from a revised first-quarter total of 57 tonnes and underscores a deepening institutional pivot toward bullion amid geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over the sustainability of US government debt.gold+2

Who Is Buying — and Why

Poland was the most active buyer during the quarter, adding 90 tonnes year-to-date to reach 640 tonnes, or roughly 28 percent of its reserves, according to Seeking Alpha. The People's Bank of China extended its buying streak to 21 consecutive months, accumulating 60 tonnes so far this year and lifting gold to approximately 8 percent of its reserves. The Czech Republic also added to its holdings. On the selling side, Russia and Turkey trimmed their positions modestly.ad-hoc-news+1

A World Gold Council and YouGov survey found that 45 percent of the 74 central banks polled intend to expand their gold reserves over the next twelve months — the highest proportion recorded since the survey began in 2018.ad-hoc-news

The most striking move came not from a buyer but from a custodial shift. De Nederlandsche Bank disclosed on September 2 that it had transferred approximately 86 metric tons of gold from New York and Ottawa to the Bank of England in London between March and August. DNB Governor Olaf Sleijpen said the relocation was intended to improve the "tradability" of Dutch reserves amid "increasing geopolitical unrest". The move followed a similar transfer by France's central bank, which shifted 129 metric tons from the New York Federal Reserve between July 2025 and January 2026.tribune+2

ETF Inflows and Market Signals

Investment demand has reinforced the official-sector bid. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Shares ↘ 0.84% trust rose by 11.13 tonnes to 1,056.62 tonnes as of September 2, marking a seventh consecutive week of inflows. Morningstar reported that global gold ETF flows moved from a flat second quarter to roughly $2 billion in net inflows during July.streetwisereports+1

Gold advanced roughly 10 percent in August after earlier declines, buoyed by a weaker US dollar, monetary-policy expectations, and fiscal concerns. The metal surged about 2 percent on Thursday after comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, before pulling back on Friday.ad-hoc-news+1

A Pivotal Fortnight Ahead

The near-term path now hinges on US consumer price data due September 10, followed by the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on September 15 and 16. Divergent voices within the Fed have whipsawed expectations: traders have priced the probability of a September rate increase at roughly 66 percent, up sharply from near 40 percent a week earlier. Meanwhile, Norway's $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund proposed cutting its US Treasury allocation, a move economist Mohamed El-Erian called small in size but large in signal. "Traditional holders and buyers are becoming less reliable," he told CNBC.tribune+1