Food prices could jump up to 18% by next summer, analysts warn

A new analysis from Eurasia Group warns that prices for food commodities including wheat, corn, and rice could rise 10 to 18% by next summer, as ongoing wars and an intensifying El Niño weather pattern converge to strain global food supply chains.marketplace

The forecast, reported by Marketplace on Friday, comes as JPMorgan ↗ 0.27% issued a similar warning last week. According to Reuters, the bank estimated an 81% probability that the current El Niño episode develops into a "very strong" or "super" El Niño by year-end, with a 97% chance conditions persist into 2027.reuters

Geopolitics and Weather Collide

Nick Kraft at Eurasia Group noted that when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February and the Strait of Hormuz closed, food price spikes were more muted than expected — largely because 2025 crop yields had been strong. "Coming into 2026, we had huge grain harvests that were buffering some of the food shortage worries," Kraft told Marketplace.marketplace

But those buffers are now shrinking. "When you layer new weather patterns, potentially destructive weather patterns, on top of already a very sort of geopolitical tense situation … it makes for a very uncertain and kind of worrisome environment," Kraft said.marketplace

JPMorgan estimated that a super El Niño alone could raise global food inflation by about 0.7 percentage points at its peak, but when combined with war-driven energy price increases affecting diesel, fertilizer, and food packaging costs, the impact could roughly double to 1.3-1.5 percentage points.reuters

Markets Already Feeling the Strain

European wheat futures pulled back on Friday as traders took profits after a July rally that pushed prices up more than 10%. September milling wheat on Euronext fell 2.9% to close at €222.75 per metric ton, after starting the month near €202.investing

The European Commission on Thursday cut its 2026/27 EU wheat production forecast, including an 8% decrease in output, with final stocks projected to tighten to 12.9 million tons.investing

Meanwhile, Black Sea tensions have lifted Turkish corn prices ahead of harvest. Turkey imported roughly 5.3 million metric tons of Ukrainian corn in the 2025-26 marketing year, and disrupted shipping has tightened supply, according to S&P Global. "Sellers know that corn won't come for a while, and there is still time until our corn harvest," a Turkish feed mill buyer told S&P Global.spglobal

Who Benefits, Who Pays

Grant Gardner at the University of Kentucky noted that farmers, who have struggled with low commodity prices in recent years, would welcome higher prices. "At the farm level, this would be viewed as a good thing," Gardner told Marketplace. "That said, from the consumer point of view, it's very different because you want those prices to remain depressed."marketplace