Dangote refinery runs at capacity supplying Europe amid Iran war

Africa's largest oil refinery is running flat out and flooding European markets with diesel and jet fuel as the Iran conflict continues to upend global energy supply chains, with its leadership warning that fuel shortages will persist long after the fighting ends.

Europe's Unlikely Fuel Lifeline

The Dangote refinery in Lagos, Nigeria, operating at its nameplate capacity of 650,000 to 700,000 barrels per day, has emerged as a central player in Europe's scramble for fuel. "Right now we're very much maximizing our diesel, but the jet is still extremely significant from a yield perspective," David Bird, CEO of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, told Bloomberg on Tuesday. "Rest assured you're going to see a massive amount of aviation fuel still making its way to Europe."bloomberg

The refinery shipped about 466,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel to Europe in June, overtaking the United States as the continent's largest external supplier for the month, according to S&P Global ↘ 0.38% Commodity Insights data. It held that position in July, delivering more than 400,000 tonnes, according to Kpler data. The facility now captures roughly one-fifth of Europe's total jet fuel imports.arbiterz+1

A Geopolitical Windfall

The Iran war, which intensified in early 2026, has disrupted oil flows on a scale that Reuters described as eclipsing previous energy crises, with almost half the world's oil now coming from conflict-affected countries. Before the disruptions, European buyers sourced close to 75% of their imported jet fuel from the Gulf region.reuters+1

Dangote's management expects the shortages to outlast the conflict itself. The company has cited damage to refining infrastructure in the Middle East and the need to replenish depleted global fuel stocks as reasons supply tightness will linger. That outlook is driving a planned $28 billion expansion to double the refinery's capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028, along with a new facility in Kenya.cryptobriefing

Domestic Paradox

Despite its global reach, the refinery faces friction at home. Imported fuel still accounted for 43% of Nigeria's supply as recently as July 2026, and Nigerian gasoline pump prices have risen by 65% — the highest increase in Africa — even as the refinery ramps up. Ongoing disputes with Nigeria's downstream petroleum regulator have triggered court orders and hindered domestic operations, creating a situation where the refinery exports jet fuel to three continents while struggling to fully supply its own market.reuters+1

"We are a merchant refinery with full crude and feedstock flexibility," the company said during a recent investor presentation, describing a strategy built around "daily margin maximization" rather than serving any single market.arbiterz