China targets 70% EV sales by 2030 in new plan

China has set a target for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles to account for 70% of all new passenger car sales by 2030, the centerpiece of a sweeping five-year automotive development plan released Friday by nine government agencies. The plan also calls for 40% of new commercial vehicle sales to be electric by the end of the decade, alongside large-scale deployment of autonomous driving technology.bloomberg+1

A Target Nearly Already Met

The ambition may be modest given how fast the market has moved. New energy vehicles already accounted for about 65% of passenger car sales in China in both July and August, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association. That figure was 54% at the end of last year and just 5% in 2020.oilprice+2

A researcher at Sinopec China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, the state oil giant, said this week that EV penetration could reach 75% to 80% by 2030, well above the government's own target. The rapid pace of adoption has been accelerated this year by an energy price shock following the war in Iran, which pushed consumers further away from gasoline-powered vehicles.reuters+1

Oil Demand in Retreat

The consequences for oil markets are already visible. Sinopec's research arm expects Chinese oil demand to fall 8.9% in 2026, with gasoline demand declining 8.7% and diesel consumption dropping 11.4%. Petrol car sales fell 40% year-on-year in August even as overall vehicle sales slumped amid China's broader economic slowdown.chinaeconomicreview+1

Chinese state refiners are preparing for an era of structurally lower road fuel demand, a shift with global implications given that China has been the world's largest driver of oil consumption growth for much of the past two decades.oilprice

Beyond Sales Targets

The five-year plan goes well beyond headline figures. It calls for tighter oversight of battery production capacity, stricter conditions for establishing new standalone EV manufacturers, and accelerated mergers and restructuring across the industry. The plan also addresses automotive chips, critical materials, operating systems, and vehicle-to-grid integration.cleantechnica+1

Several Chinese automakers are expected to rank among the world's 10 largest by 2030, with a greater role in setting global standards, according to Bloomberg, which reported on the plan's contents.bloomberg