Anthropic IPO odds rebound on report of November listing

Traders on prediction markets sharply cut their bets this week that Anthropic would formally announce its initial public offering soon, after a post-election selloff in AI stocks raised doubts about the timing and valuation of what could be the largest IPO on record. Kalshi odds that the Claude developer announces an IPO before December 1 fell to 57% from more than 85% a week earlier, and odds of an announcement before January dropped to 68% from 90%, Briefs Finance reported. Polymarket's odds of a listing by November 30 fell to 54% on Friday morning, down from 86.5% on November 4, according to FourWeekMBA's reading of exchange data.briefs.co+1

The odds partly recovered late Friday. That followed a Financial Times report that Anthropic plans to go ahead and list before Thanksgiving. By about 4:15 p.m. ET, the Kalshi pre-December contract had climbed back to 85 cents, and Polymarket's November listing contract had risen to 76%, FourWeekMBA found. The two markets are asking different questions: Kalshi's contract covers an official announcement, while Polymarket's covers the listing itself.fourweekmba.com+1

What drove the drop

The odds fell after Democrats won both chambers of Congress and several governor races, which raised fears of new limits on data center construction. On Thursday, the Nasdaq Composite lost $2.5 trillion in value, its largest single-day dollar drop ever, CNN reported. CNN said Kalshi traders had put the odds of a November IPO above 90% before Tuesday's midterms, and those odds slid to 60% on Thursday.edition.cnn.com

Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa told CNN that "we need to stop what we are doing with data centers until we have those protections," Briefs Finance noted.briefs.co

Valuation under pressure

Possible buyers are now talking about a valuation of $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, and some are considering one as low as $1.1 trillion, Bloomberg reported. Investors had earlier pointed to roughly $1.5 trillion. Four people familiar with investor talks told Reuters Thomson Reuters Corporation ↘ 4.69% that buyers doubt the roadshow can start the week of November 9 in time for a November listing. One investor told The Wall Street Journal News Corp ↘ 0.03% that the company might raise less than planned, "perhaps around $80 billion," Decrypt reported. HSBC ↘ 1.14% strategist Max Kettner said a valuation near $1 trillion would be more reassuring, according to TradingKey.mitrade.com+3

A narrow window

According to the Financial Times account summarized by FourWeekMBA, Anthropic expects to raise $80 billion to $100 billion at a valuation of $1.25 trillion to $1.75 trillion. The company has not published a price range. Anthropic made its filing public on October 26, so its roadshow could begin as early as November 10, Yahoo Finance calculated.fourweekmba.com+1

"My view is that Anthropic can still come to market and will come to market [but] will likely be forced to do so at a lower valuation," Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told CNN.edition.cnn.com