Climate change pushing malaria into new parts of Africa, study finds

Rising temperatures are reshaping the geography of malaria across Africa, pushing the mosquito-borne disease into cooler highland regions while potentially easing transmission in some of the continent's hottest zones, according to a study published Tuesday in Nature.

The research projects that by 2050, malaria cases could increase by about 5% in the East African highlands — including parts of Kenya and Ethiopia — as well as in Angola, Zambia, and eastern South Africa, as warming temperatures expand the range of malaria-carrying mosquitoes into higher elevations. In coastal southern Africa, cases could rise by as much as 20%.cidrap.umn+2

A Shifting Landscape

Both the malaria parasite and the mosquito vectors that carry it are highly sensitive to temperature, making the disease particularly responsive to climate change. The study, which drew on more than 50,000 surveys of malaria infection rates in sub-Saharan Africa spanning 1900 to 2016, modeled how temperature and extreme precipitation shaped disease prevalence while controlling for factors like seasonality and intervention efforts.cidrap.umn

In West and central Africa, where the current malaria burden is highest, the reverse trend is emerging. Transmission is projected to fall by about 5% in countries including Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Mali, where temperatures are rising to a point that reduces mosquito survival. In parts of the Sahel, conditions may become too hot for mosquitoes entirely, potentially eliminating the disease in those areas.polity

Interventions Still Outweigh Climate Effects

The researchers — from Yale University, the University of California, Berkeley, and the University of Cape Town — cautioned that climate's impact on malaria remains far smaller than the reductions achieved through medical care, mosquito nets, vector control, and economic development. "Malaria elimination within the next generation remains plausible, even in the face of climate change," the authors wrote.cidrap.umn

Still, the shifting burden demands preparation. "South Africa and its global health partners need to prepare local malaria control and health systems now for this growing risk," said Christopher Trisos, director of the Climate Risk Lab at the University of Cape Town and a co-author of the study.polity

Limiting Warming Could Prevent Thousands of Cases

Limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius would prevent about five additional malaria cases per 1,000 children in southern Africa, with even greater benefits in the East African highlands. Malaria killed an estimated 579,000 people in Africa in 2024, about three-quarters of them children under five, according to the World Health Organization.polity

The researchers emphasized that emissions reductions must be matched by stronger malaria surveillance, particularly in southern and eastern Africa, where there is less institutional experience managing the disease.polity