Middle East refinery runs remain 2.6 mbd below pre-war levels, Kpler says

Middle Eastern refinery runs remain roughly 2.6 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, with throughput stuck at around 7.3 mbd compared to 9.9 mbd in February 2026, according to a new analysis from energy data firm Kpler published Monday. The combination of physical refinery damage from the Iran war and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz has left the region's downstream sector facing its longest sustained disruption in modern history.

A Two-Speed Recovery

Kpler's analysis projects that recovery will come in two distinct phases. The first, beginning in late Q4 2026, will be driven primarily by improved logistics as transit through the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens, allowing operational refineries to raise throughput and resume product exports. The second, slower phase involves restoring physically damaged capacity — work that will keep a full return to pre-war output out of reach until at least Q2 2027.kpler+1

The region has lost around 4 mbd of total refined product supply since the conflict began in late February, when the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran. Of that, approximately 2.5 mbd reflects curtailed refinery output, while the remaining 1.5 mbd comes from other supply streams including LPG and NGL-derived naphtha.natoassociation+1

Reuters reported in early August that the war has sent refining margins for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to record highs globally, turbocharging earnings for major oil companies. Kpler estimates global refinery runs at roughly 80 mbd for 2026, about 3 mbd below the 2025 average.kpler+1

Country-by-Country Damage

The disruption varies sharply across the region. Saudi Arabia's refinery runs have fallen to around 2.2 mbd, with the 400,000 barrel-per-day Jizan refinery offline following Houthi attacks in July and SATORP's 200,000 bpd capacity under extended maintenance. Kuwait is running at about 570,000 bpd, constrained by damage to Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah. Bahrain's Sitra refinery has been hit hardest in relative terms, with runs collapsing from 420,000 bpd pre-war to just 100,000–120,000 bpd.kpler

The UAE is better positioned for a quick rebound, with earlier disruptions at Ruwais largely resolved and the main constraint being restricted exports rather than physical damage. Oman, located outside the Strait of Hormuz, remains the regional exception, operating near full capacity at around 400,000 bpd.kpler

Global Ripple Effects

The downstream collapse has reverberated far beyond energy markets. UNCTAD noted that the Strait carries around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, and disruptions have raised freight rates, insurance premiums, and fuel costs across international supply chains. A Congressional Research Service report from August confirmed that while a U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 7 halted major combat operations, Iran has continued to exert control over the Strait through threatened and actual attacks on commercial shipping.unctad+1

PBS reported that energy experts have described the situation as "the largest supply disruption we've ever seen in history", with S&P Global estimating it could take six months to restore 80 percent of pre-war shipping flows.pbs+1