Europe’s fuel crisis spreads to jet fuel amid winter fears

Europe's deepening fuel crisis has now expanded beyond diesel into jet fuel, with analysts warning of a supply shortfall that could reach 510,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, even as other regions sit on surpluses. The squeeze comes as wholesale energy prices surge, pump prices hit records, and the European Central Bank warns that gas cost spikes are reaching consumers faster than ever.

Jet Fuel Joins the Crunch

Energy consultancy Energy Aspects forecast a European jet fuel deficit of roughly 510,000 barrels per day for the final three months of 2026, Reuters reported on Monday. By contrast, the United States faces a modest surplus of 18,000 barrels per day and the Asia-Pacific region holds a much larger 419,000-barrel-per-day surplus. Jet fuel inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub fell to 454,000 tons in the week ending September 10, their lowest in seven years. South Korea has emerged as Europe's largest jet fuel supplier, with imports running at about 129,000 barrels per day, the highest since October 2022.oilprice+3

The crisis traces in large part to disruptions in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Aramco told at least two European refining customers they would receive no crude in October after Houthi drone strikes damaged the kingdom's East-West pipeline, which was built to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on September 18. Repairs are expected to take five to six weeks. The cancellations have forced buyers like Poland's Orlen to scramble for alternatives.intellinews+2

Energy Costs Ripple Through the Economy

German wholesale power for January delivery has topped €180 per megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange, more than 60% above year-ago levels and the strongest winter price signal since the 2022 crisis. EU gas storage stood at just 69.31% of capacity on September 18, well short of the 90% target for November 1. Gasoline prices across the EU have risen roughly 29% since the start of the year, while diesel has surged about 40%.oilprice+1

The ECB said Monday that wholesale gas price changes now transmit to consumer gas inflation within one to three months in more than half of eurozone countries, a sharp acceleration from previous cycles driven by market liberalization and shorter fixed-term contracts. ECB staff project headline inflation reaching 3.0% in 2026, up from 2.1% in 2025, mainly driven by higher energy prices.ecb.europa+2

Governments Weigh Emergency Measures

Some 11% of French filling stations were out of petrol or diesel on September 19, with President Emmanuel Macron convening an emergency meeting on the shortages. Bulgaria unveiled a fuel aid package worth more than €300 million on September 18, and Poland has revived a windfall tax on fuel companies. Brussels has signaled it could call an emergency ministerial meeting if the crisis worsens further.euractiv+1

"There is not much that can shield power markets," said Florence Schmit, a senior energy strategist at Rabobank. "The renewables side has been growing but hasn't been strong enough to make up for this huge reliance on gas."intellinews