Russia to lift oil exports 4% in August on surging Asian demand

Russia is preparing to ramp up crude oil shipments from its western ports in August, driven by strong demand from Asian buyers scrambling for alternatives to Middle Eastern supplies disrupted by the ongoing near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Rising Exports, Shrinking Refinery Capacity

Oil exports from Russia's Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, along with the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, are set to reach around 2.7 million barrels per day in August, a 4% increase from July's 2.6 million bpd, according to Reuters ↗ 3.55%, citing two traders with knowledge of the preliminary loading data. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have reduced domestic processing capacity, freeing up more crude for export. July loadings had dipped after repeated Ukrainian attacks in the Black Sea disrupted operations at Novorossiysk.reuters+1

Loadings from the ports are expected to run near capacity, though ongoing strikes and a shortage of available tanker tonnage may cap volumes.reuters

India and China Drive Asian Demand

India's appetite for Russian crude reached a record in July, with imports climbing to 2.78 million bpd, up from 2.74 million bpd in June, according to ship-tracking data reported by India Today. Russia now accounts for more than 55% of India's total crude purchases, the highest share since New Delhi began buying large volumes of discounted Russian oil after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.caliber+1

Discounts on Russian Urals crude delivered to India have narrowed sharply. Reuters reported on July 29 that cargoes for late August and early September delivery were offered at discounts of just $1 to $2 per barrel against dated Brent, down from wider spreads earlier this year. The attached Reuters report from Monday noted Urals differentials for delivery to India in late August and September at minus $2 to $3 per barrel to Brent at delivery.reuters+1

Chinese refiners have also increased purchases of Russian oil. Two major Chinese refiners acquired most of Russia's ESPO Blend cargoes for September loading at narrower discounts, according to Reuters, as the Strait of Hormuz disruptions have curtailed access to traditional Middle Eastern suppliers.reuters

The Hormuz Factor

The disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, has reshaped global crude trade flows since the waterway was effectively closed in March 2026. PBS reported in June that commercial traffic through the strait remained "sharply reduced" with little sign of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations. The World Bank noted that the shutdown constitutes "the largest oil market disruption in history," pushing Brent prices higher and redirecting buyers toward alternative suppliers.blogs.worldbank+2

Russia, already exporting at elevated levels due to refinery outages, has been a primary beneficiary of this shift, with Asian refiners willing to pay narrower discounts to secure supply.