Iran war pushes EU oil bill up nearly €10bn a month

The European Union spent an average of €27.6 billion a month on oil imports in the second quarter of 2026. That is 55.8% more than the monthly average of €17.7 billion in 2025, even though the amount of oil it bought barely changed, according to a Euronews Business analysis. Import volumes rose just 1.2%, from 36.3 million to 36.7 million tonnes a month, which means the bloc paid about €9.9 billion more each month for nearly the same supply.es.euronews.com

The extra cost comes from higher crude prices after the US-Israeli war with Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Experts quoted by Euronews do not expect the bill to fall soon.euronews.com

Price, not volume

The EU paid €750 per tonne of imported oil in the second quarter. That was up from €487 on average in 2025 and only €2 below the record set in the second quarter of 2022, Euronews reported. Professor Xiaoyi Mu of the University of Dundee said the average Brent price in the quarter was 49.5%, or $34 a barrel, above its 2025 average. He noted that about a fifth of the world's daily oil consumption passed through Hormuz before the war. "When almost 20% of global supply is cut off, the price has to rise to balance the market," he said.es.euronews.com

Oil made up almost all of the increase in the bloc's energy import bill. Of the €34.2 billion year-on-year rise in second-quarter energy imports, €32.4 billion came from petroleum products, according to the analysis. Szymon Kardas of the European Council on Foreign Relations said the EU is especially exposed because it imports 90% to 95% of the oil it uses.es.euronews.com

At the pump, average EU diesel prices rose from €1.54 a litre in early January to €2.24 in late September, above the 2022 peak. Diesel stood at €2.14 on October 19.

Little relief in sight

The disruption has not eased. Brent climbed above $117 a barrel last week, its highest level since April, after a wave of Iranian attacks on tankers, Nation Thailand reported. Prices then slipped on October 27 as talks involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan continued. UBS now expects Brent to stay near $110 through the end of 2026, the same report said. Flows through Hormuz were about 60% of normal, ANZ Research said, as cited by The Business Standard.tbsnews.net+1

Mu warned that higher shipping and insurance costs may not yet show up fully in the second-quarter bill and could push costs higher in the third and fourth quarters. Kardas expects the conflict-related costs to "persist in the coming months and could well extend into 2027," Euronews reported. Asked whether costs would stay high, Mu replied, "Unfortunately, yes, because we don't see a practical way to end the conflict."es.euronews.com