Goldman Sachs raises European gas forecast as Hormuz conflict tightens supply

Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ↘ 1.20% has lifted its fourth-quarter 2026 forecast for Dutch TTF natural gas to EUR 70 per megawatt-hour, according to a Reuters report published Thursday. The revision marks a sharp increase from the bank's previous Q4 2026 forecast of EUR 53/MWh, set in July, and comes as European gas prices have surged to their highest levels in more than three years amid escalating conflict around the Strait of Hormuz.tradingview+1

A Market Already Trading Above the Forecast

The new target still sits below where the market is currently trading. TTF front-month futures rose above EUR 80/MWh on September 9, a level not seen since early 2023. The December 2026 contract recently settled near EUR 75/MWh, suggesting the forward curve already prices in elevated winter risk.newsquawk+2

Goldman's forecast trajectory over the course of 2026 illustrates how quickly the European gas outlook has deteriorated. In June, the bank maintained a second-half 2026 forecast of around EUR 41/MWh. By late July, it had already raised Q3 and Q4 targets to EUR 60 and EUR 53, respectively, citing a slower-than-expected recovery in Persian Gulf LNG exports. Thursday's revision extends that pattern.Sahm+2

Hormuz Tensions and a Storage Shortfall

The backdrop is grim for European energy buyers. The U.S.-Iran conflict has repeatedly disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of the world's LNG trade. In early September, U.S. forces struck multiple Iranian oil tankers near Kharg Island and Jask, prompting Iranian threats to declare a restricted zone around the strait.aljazeera+1

Those disruptions have crimped the LNG supply Europe needs to rebuild depleted gas inventories. As of September 8, EU gas storage stood at roughly 67% of capacity, more than 16 percentage points below the five-year seasonal average of about 84%. With the heating season approaching in weeks, the deficit leaves little margin for further supply shocks.energyriskiq+1

What to Watch

Newsquawk noted that the more informative element of such bank forecasts is typically the underlying rationale — whether it rests on assumptions about Russian supply, LNG capacity timing, or Asian competition for cargoes — rather than the headline number. Whether peer banks follow with similar revisions will be a key signal; clustered target changes have historically coincided with genuine repricing of the forward curve, while isolated moves tend to fade. Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis has already called on the EU to suspend its carbon allowance system in response to elevated energy costs, a sign that political pressure is building alongside the price.newsquawk