Salidas récord de fondos de bonos mientras el petróleo supera los 100 dólares por ataques en el Mar Rojo

Brent crude surged back above $100 a barrel this week after Iran-aligned Houthi militants attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, triggering a global bond market selloff that has pushed yields across major economies to levels not seen in years. The oil shock has revived inflation fears and thrown the Federal Reserve's next policy decision into sharp uncertainty.

Middle East Conflict Chokes Oil Supply

Houthi rebels announced on Tuesday that they had struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, effectively blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the second critical chokepoint for Middle East oil after the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely shut down amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict. Brent crude surged 7% on Thursday to hit $102, its highest since May, before easing slightly on Friday. President Donald Trump vowed retaliation against Iran, saying he was considering a "massive attack".reuters+3

The supply disruption compounds existing pressures. Before the Iran conflict, roughly a fifth of the world's oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. With both corridors now compromised, crude prices have climbed nearly 40% this month, according to Reuters ↗ 5.20%.ms+1

Bond Markets Rattle Globally

The oil-driven inflation scare sent yields soaring across the developed world. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.70% on Thursday, its highest in over 18 months, while the 30-year yield reached 5.17%, near a 19-year peak. U.S. investment-grade bond funds saw a record $7.1 billion in weekly outflows.wtvbam+1

In Europe, Germany's 10-year Bund yield climbed to 3.21%, its highest since 2011, as the European Central Bank held rates steady at 2.25%. The UK 10-year gilt yield rose above 5%, while The Wall Street Journal News Corp ↗ 1.48% reported that yields in the U.S., U.K., and Germany all surged simultaneously on the oil price shock.wsj+3

Fed Rate Hike Odds Shift Dramatically

Markets are now pricing roughly a one-in-three chance the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its July 28-29 meeting, according to Forbes. The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% all year, but Chair Kevin Warsh's deliberate break from forward guidance has amplified uncertainty. Nine of 18 Fed officials projected at their June meeting that rates would end 2026 above the current range.forbes+3

The FOMC meets Monday and Tuesday with energy-driven inflation pressuring policymakers. As one market briefing noted Friday, bond yields "hovered near multi-decade highs" as the conflict showed no signs of easing.reuters