Empty Qatari LNG tankers head home, signaling export pivot

Several empty Qatari liquefied natural gas tankers are heading back toward the Persian Gulf, a sign that QatarEnergy may be positioning vessels to resume exports through the Strait of Hormuz after months of conflict-driven disruption. Six empty gas carriers linked to Qatar are in the Gulf of Oman or on their way there, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, while Kpler data shows another empty ship recently crossed the Hormuz and is heading toward Qatar.bloomberg

The movement comes at a critical moment for global energy markets as winter approaches and Europe's gas storage sits at historic lows.

A Fraught Passage

The potential resumption is far from straightforward. On Friday, Qatar attempted to send the empty tanker Al Ghashamiya into the Gulf, but after a few hours the vessel turned around. LNG tankers face a more hostile risk calculus than crude carriers in the Strait of Hormuz: an LNG carrier costs roughly $240 million but holds only about $114 million worth of gas, making the risk-reward balance of sailing through a war zone unfavorable.thenationalnews

Two Qatari-linked LNG tankers were struck in the strait this summer. Al Rekayyat was hit by a projectile on July 7 that ignited its engine room, and the Gaslog Shanghai sustained a similar strike on July 31. Both ships transferred their cargoes to other vessels in the Gulf of Oman last month. In March, a Ukrainian sea drone disabled Russia's Arctic Metagaz in the Mediterranean, and the ship burned out completely, underscoring the vulnerability of LNG carriers.thenationalnews

QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on shipments to Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Italy's Edison into early November on August 28.thenationalnews

Economic Toll and Credit Outlook

The disruption has inflicted severe economic damage. Fitch Ratings expects Qatar's economy to contract 18.8 percent in 2026 due to lower LNG production. Roughly 12.8 million tons of annual LNG capacity remain offline after Iranian strikes damaged facilities at Ras Laffan, with estimated annual revenue losses of about $20 billion. Fitch nonetheless affirmed Qatar's credit rating at "AA" on September 6, citing the country's high GDP per capita and large sovereign assets, while projecting a strong rebound once LNG flows normalize and production begins from the North Field expansion.arabnews+2

Europe Watches Nervously

EU gas storage stood at just under 66 percent full at the end of last week, the lowest on record and well below the 83 percent average for this time of year. Bangladesh paid $28.03 per million British thermal units for spot LNG cargoes on Friday, equivalent to $163 per barrel of oil, while Pakistan rejected bids at nearly $27 per million BTU as too costly. New LNG supply from the United States, Nigeria, and Canada is expected to ease the market through 2028–2030, but relief will not arrive this winter.thenationalnews

Whether the tankers now queuing near Hormuz successfully transit will be a telling indicator of how the coming months unfold for global gas markets — and for the countries that depend on them.