Morgan Stanley: Σ στα 100 δολάρια η SpaceX δεν αποτιμάται καθόλου η τεχνητή νοημοσύνη

Morgan Stanley ↘ 0.33% analyst Adam Jonas warned on Thursday that many investors expect SpaceX shares to fall to $100 as lockup restrictions from the company's June IPO begin expiring next month, a level he argues would imply zero or even negative value for the company's artificial intelligence business.finance.yahoo+1

The note, published as SpaceX traded down roughly 5% to around $112, comes ahead of what is shaping up to be one of the largest lockup expirations in market history. Approximately 911.5 million shares, valued at more than $100 billion, become eligible for sale starting August 6 — two trading days after SpaceX's debut quarterly earnings report scheduled for August 4.investing+2

A Disconnect Between Price and Fundamentals

Jonas maintained Morgan Stanley's $300 price target and Overweight rating on SpaceX, reiterating that more than half of that valuation is ascribed to the company's AI segment, which includes its xAI and Grok operations. At the current price below $120, Jonas said, the stock already represents a "reasonable" value for SpaceX's earnings power, and at $100 the market would be assigning virtually nothing to AI while also valuing the core space and connectivity business well below Morgan Stanley's own estimates.youtube+1

The Morgan Stanley initiation in early July broke down the company's value as roughly $8 per share for the space launch business, $128 for connectivity (primarily Starlink), $12 for the X and Grok platforms, and $152 for enterprise AI — totaling $300.youtube

Lockup Pressure Mounts

SpaceX has fallen sharply since reaching an intraday high above $225 on June 16, just days after its record-breaking $75 billion IPO priced at $135 per share. By mid-July, shares had slipped below the IPO price, and the stock has continued to decline as the first unlock date approaches.reuters+1

The first tranche of 911.5 million shares unlocks unconditionally after earnings, while a second tranche of 455.8 million shares requires the stock to hold above $175.50 for at least five of ten consecutive trading days — a threshold now far out of reach. Elon Musk's controlling stake, representing roughly 60% of outstanding shares, remains locked until June 2027.investing+3

Reuters reported last week that the potential supply increase dwarfs what is typical for a large-cap lockup expiry, with the unlocking shares worth roughly 68 times the $1.8 billion average for comparable events.investing+1