Airbus trims 20-year jet demand forecast over Iran war, tariffs

Airbus on Wednesday trimmed its long-term industry-wide forecast for passenger aircraft demand by 1%, citing the impact of the war in Iran and ongoing trade tensions that have disrupted what had been a strong post-pandemic rebound in global aviation.

In its updated Global Market Forecast, the European planemaker said it now expects 42,060 total passenger jet deliveries between 2026 and 2045, down from its previous rolling 20-year estimate. The forecast covers demand across the industry, including aircraft from rival Boeing ↗ 0.52% and Chinese manufacturers.money.usnews+1

Iran War Takes Toll on Aviation

The revision comes after months of disruption to the global airline industry stemming from the conflict in Iran, which began in late February. The war has driven up fuel costs, forced airlines to reroute flights, and hit margins across the sector. In June, the International Air Transport Association nearly halved its 2026 profit forecast for the global airline industry to $23 billion, down from an earlier expectation of approximately $41 billion.reuters

Middle East carriers have been particularly hard hit. IATA expects airlines in the region to record a collective loss of $4.3 billion in 2026. However, Gulf carriers have been steadily rebuilding operations, with major airlines now operating at roughly 82% of their pre-war flight levels, according to Flightradar24 data from mid-June.reuters+1

Airbus Sees Gulf Carriers Recovering

Despite the forecast cut, Airbus expressed optimism that airlines in the Persian Gulf would overcome the business disruption and regain their position in the industry. Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad are operating at or near 90% of their pre-conflict capacities, while Gulf Air and Kuwait Airways have surpassed their pre-war flight volumes.binance+2

Airbus also noted it expects a higher proportion of total deliveries — 47% compared with the previous 45% — to replace older aircraft rather than expand fleets, reflecting the disruption's effect on growth plans. The forecast projects passenger traffic to grow 3.9% annually over the next 20 years, driven by global GDP growth and rising urbanization.aol+1

The updated forecast was released as Airbus targets around 900 commercial aircraft deliveries in 2026 after a stronger-than-expected June.finance.yahoo