SemiAnalysis says OpenAI and Anthropic now dominate AI as Google slides to fifth

The artificial intelligence industry has crystallized into a two-company race between OpenAI and Anthropic, with Google Alphabet Inc. ↘ 3.58% falling to fifth place among frontier labs, according to a new discussion published by semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis on July 22.

Programming Drives the Revenue Engine

In what SemiAnalysis analysts described as a "stunning" reversal, OpenAI staged a comeback after a sluggish first quarter by releasing its GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6 models alongside its Codex coding agent, which now has more than 8 million active users. The firm's enterprise API revenue surged, flipping its consumer-to-enterprise revenue ratio from 60/40 in the first quarter to 40/60 in the second quarter. Monthly net new annual recurring revenue at OpenAI and Anthropic now stands at roughly equal levels, the analysts said, establishing what they called a clear "duopoly".Gradually AI+2

Programming and software engineering have become the dominant use case, accounting for more than 70 percent of API revenue at leading frontier labs. Heavy enterprise users spend as much as $100,000 per person annually on AI tools, with API margins exceeding 85 percent — a figure that has helped Anthropic turn an operating profit in the second quarter, with third-quarter GAAP operating income projected to surpass $1 billion.富途資訊+1

Google's Compute Lock-In Triggers Talent Exodus

Google's fall to fifth place stems from what SemiAnalysis called a structural failure: the company signed long-term TPU leasing agreements — including a deal providing up to one million seventh-generation Ironwood chips to Anthropic — without clawback provisions that would allow it to reclaim compute capacity for its own model training. The resulting internal resource crunch has driven a wave of departures from Google DeepMind, including Transformer co-inventor Noam Shazeer to OpenAI and Nobel laureate John Jumper to Anthropic in a 48-hour span in June. Four additional senior researchers left within ten days, costing Alphabet more than $245 billion in market capitalization in a single trading session.The Next Web+3

Google's best publicly available model, Gemini 3.5 Flash, now sits well behind offerings from Anthropic, OpenAI, and others on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index.Blogger

A Market Still Taking Shape

OpenAI President Greg Brockman, whose role expanded following the departure of applications CEO Fidji Simo, told Bloomberg on July 22 that Chinese competitor Kimi K3 is "without a doubt a competitive model," while cautioning that it remains "too early to tell" whether distillation played a role in its performance. In earlier interviews, Brockman said OpenAI is "70 to 80 percent of the way" to artificial general intelligence and characterized the company's trajectory as still accelerating. SemiAnalysis, meanwhile, warned that Meta ↗ 1.02% could overtake Google within six months if current investment levels hold, potentially reshaping the duopoly into a three-way contest.FuTu News+3