Met Office declares El Nino strongest in living memory

Britain's Met Office on Friday declared that the El Niño weather pattern developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest in living memory, warning that 2027 is "very likely" to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.bbc+1

The agency's latest forecasts show equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rising more than 3°C above normal later this year — far exceeding the 1-2°C range of a typical El Niño event. Sea surface temperatures in key Pacific regions have already surpassed 2°C above the long-term average, a threshold sometimes used to define a "super El Niño."reuters+2

"I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts," said Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office.independent+1

An Unprecedented Climate Event

According to Reuters, the Met Office said 2026 "is going to be renowned for the development of the largest El Niño in living memory and what is probably the largest such event since the 19th century." A Nature report in July described the event as on track to be the largest in at least 150 years.reuters+1

NOAA's August forecast confirmed the trend, putting the chance of a very strong El Niño during autumn and winter 2026-27 at greater than 90 percent. During the October-December 2026 season, the agency said there is a 69 percent chance of a historic event exceeding the strength of all El Niño episodes dating back to 1950.foxweather+1

Dr. Nick Dunstone, a Met Office climate scientist, explained that during large El Niño events, considerably more heat transfers from the ocean to the atmosphere, leading to increased global average temperatures "particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak."bbc

Global Impacts Already Emerging

The effects of the intensifying pattern are already visible. India's southwest monsoon has delivered below-average rainfall, consistent with typical El Niño behavior, and Atlantic hurricane activity has been suppressed, with only three named storms so far this season.bbc

Economists warn the consequences could be severe. Research from Dartmouth College found that the 1982-83 El Niño caused $5.7 trillion in economic losses, while the 2023 event alone is expected to cost $3 trillion by 2029. The European Central Bank has estimated that a moderate El Niño can drive real commodity price inflation up by around 3 percent within six to 12 months of onset, while global food prices could peak at 9 percent higher during a strong event.aa

Climate Change Compounding the Risk

Scientists stress that this El Niño is unfolding atop an already-warming planet. Dr. Ella Gilbert of the British Antarctic Survey said the event will "turbocharge" global temperatures, adding: "If climate heating is loading the dice towards more extreme events, then El Niño is adding weight."independent

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has cautioned that El Niño could push tens of millions of people in vulnerable countries toward crisis-level food insecurity.bbc