ICC warns Hormuz disruption threatens global food crisis

World food prices rose in September to their highest level in almost four years. At the same time, the head of the International Chamber of Commerce is warning that continued shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are turning an energy shock into a global food security crisis.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said on Oct. 2 that its Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September. That was up 2.0 points, or 1.5 percent, from a revised August figure and 5.8 percent higher than a year earlier. Reuters reported it was the highest reading since November 2022. The FAO said the increase came mostly from transport disruptions and weather concerns that limited supply.fao+2

Grains and sugar lead the rise

The cereal index rose 5.1 percent from August and was 17.2 percent above its September 2025 level. According to Reuters, weaker yield prospects for U.S. corn added to pressure from disrupted Black Sea grain trade. Sugar rose 6.1 percent, its third straight monthly increase, reaching its highest level since April 2025. Vegetable oils gained 0.9 percent. Meat prices fell and dairy was little changed. The overall index is still 15.1 percent below its March 2022 peak.reuters+1

Fertiliser supply under strain

ICC Secretary General John Denton said in remarks reported by The Wall Street Journal that about one-third of the world's fertiliser supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. He said available fertiliser production and supply capacity has fallen by nearly 40% since shipping was disrupted, taking about 2.7 million tons off the market. He warned that grain prices could rise by as much as 80% if there is no progress on reopening the strait. Import-dependent countries such as the Philippines, which imports nearly 90% of its fertiliser, face the greatest risk.dailybeirut

Analysis by the World Trade Organization found that fertiliser shipments leaving the strait almost stopped after the Gulf conflict began in February 2026. Gulf economies had supplied 24.8% of global nitrogenous fertiliser exports. The WTO also said the El Niño weather pattern could add to the pressure. Earlier in the crisis, the FAO warned that a closure lasting more than 90 days could cause a severe food-price crisis within six to 12 months.fortune+1

Diplomacy stalled

The ICC is working with UN agencies and the International Maritime Organization on a plan to manage passage through the strait temporarily. It would include inspection, insurance and safe-passage rules. The plan has stalled because the United States and Iran have not reached an agreement. President Donald Trump rejected a seven-day proposal from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi that would have halted fighting and reopened the strait.dailybeirut

The UN estimates that at least 266 million people in 47 countries and territories already face severe food insecurity. Denton has argued that reopening the route is "not a humanitarian gesture" but is necessary to keep the global food system working.nhandan+1