Global warming hit 1.37°C in 2025, on track to pass 1.5°C by 2030

An international team of more than 70 scientists has found that human-caused global warming reached 1.37°C in 2025 and is accelerating at a record pace, with the planet's energy imbalance at its highest level ever observed. The findings, published on June 11, 2026, in the journal Earth System Science Data, project that warming will surpass the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold around 2030 if emissions continue at current levels.

Warming Accelerates as Emissions Hit New Highs

The fourth edition of the Indicators of Global Climate Change report, released in Bonn, finds that global greenhouse gas emissions reached an all-time high of 56.8 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2024, driven mainly by fossil fuel combustion. The rate of human-induced warming stands at approximately 0.27°C per decade over the period 2016–2025, a pace described as unprecedented.miragenews+1

"A key indicator is the Earth's energy imbalance, which measures how fast heat is accumulating in the climate system," said Prof. Piers Forster, Director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds and the report's lead author. "Without human influence, it should be close to zero, but it has been growing since the 1970s and is now at a record high, doubling in recent decades."eurekalert

The report notes that nearly all of the warming experienced over the last decade was caused by human activities, with human-induced warming averaging 1.24°C over 2016–2025 compared to total observed warming of 1.26°C for the same period.eurekalert

Carbon Budget Running Out

The remaining carbon budget to keep warming below 1.5°C is estimated at just 130 gigatonnes of CO2 from the start of 2026 — roughly three years' worth of current emissions. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations reached 425.6 parts per million in 2025, while methane hit 1,936.3 parts per billion.climatechangetracker+1

The World Meteorological Organization's State of the Global Climate report, published in March 2026, had already confirmed that 2015–2025 were the hottest 11 years on record and that Earth's energy imbalance reached its highest level in the 65-year observational record.icos-cp+1

Sea Level and Extremes

The IGCC report also documents accelerating consequences. Global sea level rise reached a new record of 23 centimeters since 1901, while the number of marine heatwave days globally has more than tripled between 1991 and 2025. Dr. Chris Smith of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis warned that many of the global datasets underpinning climate monitoring are now threatened by funding decisions, stating: "We need concerted international action and coordination to ensure the continuity of observations of the climate."eurekalert