Brazil coffee industry warns El Niño could cut harvest by up to 20%

Brazil's record-setting coffee harvest faces a new threat as El Niño takes hold across the equatorial Pacific, with the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic) warning that excessive heat and irregular rainfall could cut production by as much as a fifth. The development adds fresh uncertainty to a global coffee market already roiled by years of supply shortfalls and historically elevated prices.

Abic Sounds the Alarm

Conab, Brazil's state crop agency, has forecast total 2026/27 production at a record 66.7 million 60-kilogram bags. But Abic's executive director, Celirio Da Silva, cautioned that El Niño could erode those gains considerably. "In a normal season, a loss of 15 to 20 percent would be expected. In the current situation, this is bad news," Da Silva said in an interview published by Reuters ↗ 2.95% on Monday.reuters+1

El Niño is expected to disrupt the crop's biological cycle during the flowering period in the second half of 2026, with excessive heat and irregular rain causing uneven and unproductive flowering. Wellis Caixeta, purchasing manager for Minas Gerais-based cooperative Expocacer, noted that irregular ripening could also create quality issues and complicate harvesting.energynews.oedigital+1

Resilience Limits the Damage

Despite the warning, industry figures emphasized that Brazil's coffee sector is better equipped to withstand El Niño than in previous cycles. Farmers have rapidly expanded irrigation systems in recent years, reducing dependence on increasingly unpredictable rainfall. "We have made significant progress and are now able to harvest and plant more efficiently," Da Silva told Reuters.energynews.oedigital

In Rondônia, in northern Brazil, growers expect to harvest a record 3 million bags, and local association Caferon said that irrigated robusta plantations there are less vulnerable to El Niño-driven heat and drought than arabica-growing regions farther south.energynews.oedigital

Market Already on Edge

The warning lands in a market that has surged roughly 30% since forecasters officially declared El Niño last month, according to the Los Angeles Times. Coffee futures posted their largest single-day gain since 2000 on July 7, as Forbes reported prices hitting levels analysts compared to "meme-stock territory". Giuseppe Lavazza, chairman of Italian roaster Lavazza, said lower prices are unlikely for at least two years, telling Bloomberg that "instability is the new constant".forbes+1

The 2023/24 El Niño episode, combined with heatwaves, cut Brazil's 2024 crop from an initial forecast of 58.8 million bags to 54.2 million, offering a cautionary precedent for the months ahead.energynews.oedigital