Global chip market forecast to double to $1.6T in 2026

The global semiconductor market is on track to nearly double in size this year, with multiple industry forecasters now projecting revenue will reach $1.6 trillion in 2026 — a figure that would have seemed improbable just quarters ago. The surge, driven overwhelmingly by memory chips feeding insatiable demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, is reshaping the industry even as leading AI developers call for slowing the technology's advance.

Forecasts Leap Higher

Gartner in late August projected worldwide semiconductor revenue of $1.6 trillion for 2026, a 92% jump from $809 billion in 2025. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization's spring forecast was only slightly more conservative, pegging the market at $1.51 trillion, a 90% increase. South Korea's Export-Import Bank raised its own estimate to $1.6 trillion — 60% above the $1 trillion it had forecast just one quarter earlier.sedaily+4

Memory is the primary engine of growth. Gartner expects memory revenue alone to total $837 billion this year, accounting for 54% of total semiconductor revenue, up from 27% in 2025. The Export-Import Bank projects the DRAM market will reach $519 billion — 3.4 times last year's level — while NAND is seen growing nearly fivefold to $360 billion. Supply shortages in both DRAM and NAND are expected to persist into 2027, keeping prices elevated.electronicsonline+1

TSMC Widens Its Lead

The boom has further cemented TSMC's dominance of contract chipmaking. The company captured roughly 73% of the global pure-play foundry market in the second quarter of 2026, holding that share for two consecutive quarters, according to Counterpoint Research. TrendForce put the figure at 72.5% of overall foundry revenue, with TSMC's quarterly sales reaching $40.2 billion, up 33.7% year over year. Samsung Electronics trailed at roughly 5.9% to 7% depending on the measure, while China's SMIC Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation held about 5.4%.investor.tsmc+4

TSMC's gains stem from the mass production of 2-nanometer chips, a continued ramp of 3-nanometer capacity, and tight supply in advanced packaging — all areas where AI workloads are concentrating demand.marklapedus.substack+1

AI Slowdown Calls Meet Market Reality

The forecasts arrive against an unusual backdrop. On September 12, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei published an essay urging the AI industry to slow its pace of development, warning that rogue AI agents could overwhelm the internet within months. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis, and SpaceXAI's Elon Musk publicly agreed the same day. Shares of chipmakers including Samsung Electronics and SK hynix ↗ 2.46% fell in response. A federal antitrust lawsuit filed on September 19 now alleges the four companies illegally coordinated that stance.cbsnews+3

Yet the spending data tells a different story. Capital expenditure by the world's nine largest hyperscalers is expected to rise 98% this year, up from an earlier estimate of 80%, as Big Tech firms lock in three-to-five-year supply agreements with memory makers. The Export-Import Bank concluded that the AI slowdown argument "runs counter" to the trajectory of actual chip demand.sedaily