Saudi Arabia nears renewed war with Houthis as oil routes come under siege

After weeks of escalating attacks by Yemen's Houthi militia on Saudi ships, oil facilities, and airports, Saudi Arabia appears to be preparing for a renewed military campaign against the group, according to analysts and regional officials, potentially opening a new front in the broader U.S.-Iran conflict roiling the Middle East.

Diplomacy Breaks Down

The Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi-linked shipping on July 20 and have since carried out at least 16 attacks on Saudi assets, including seven oil facilities and six oil tankers, according to conflict monitoring group ACLED. Earlier this week, the group claimed responsibility for a ballistic missile strike on the Saudi oil tanker "Amzan" off the port city of Yanbu, with military spokesman Yahya Saree promising to confront any Saudi escalation with "stronger and more severe strikes."nytimes+2

Saudi Arabia initially pursued a diplomatic path, holding talks with the Houthis via Omani mediators in early August while conducting limited airstrikes on Houthi positions in late July, according to Bloomberg. But those channels appear to have collapsed. "I am not seeing a political offramp at this point," said Mohammed al-Basha, a Yemen-focused political analyst based in Washington. "War is coming."japantimes+1

Oil Exports Rerouted

The Houthi threat has forced Saudi Aramco to overhaul its export logistics for a second time since the Iran war began. With both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed to Saudi tankers, the kingdom is now moving crude north through the Red Sea to the Sumed pipeline in Egypt, which shuttles oil to the Mediterranean. More than 1.9 million barrels per day traveled through the Sumed pipeline route in August, compared with fewer than 650,000 barrels a day in June, according to data from Kpler. Saudi tankers have also begun switching off tracking signals to avoid Houthi targeting, Reuters reported.dtnext+2

The detours add at least $5 per barrel in costs and two to four weeks of extra travel time for Asian buyers. "Even the world's most important oil exporter cannot fully escape the consequences of multiple maritime choke points being threatened simultaneously," said Neil Quilliam, an expert on Gulf states at Chatham House.dtnext

Echoes of 2015

Few analysts believe there is a realistic path to routing the Houthis entirely. Saudi Arabia's last bombing campaign against the group, launched in 2015, turned into a decade-long quagmire that entrenched Houthi rule in northern Yemen and resulted in hundreds of thousands of Yemeni deaths. Instead, analysts say Riyadh may aim to weaken the group enough to pressure it into negotiations over Yemen's civil war on terms more favorable to the kingdom. The Soufan Center warned on August 20 that Yemen is moving closer to "full-scale war," driven by unresolved grievances from the previous conflict and Iran's backing of the Houthis amid its own war with the United States and Israel.thesoufancenter+1