Wheat, corn hit three-year highs as Black Sea war chokes grain exports

Corn and wheat futures surged to their highest levels in more than three years on Friday, August 28, as escalating military strikes on Black Sea port infrastructure choked off grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, two of the world's largest suppliers.

Wheat futures settled 3.1% higher at 784 cents per bushel after touching 790.25 cents, the highest price since February 2023. Wheat jumped 12.1% for the week — its largest weekly gain since March 2022 — and is now up more than 54.5% year-to-date. Corn futures settled at 536.5 cents per bushel, also a three-year high, gaining 5.5% on the week and 15.6% in August.cnbc

Black Sea Conflict Reshapes Global Grain Trade

The rallies stem from different but overlapping forces. Wheat's surge is driven almost entirely by disruptions to Black Sea shipping. More than 90% of Russia's grain export capacity in the Azov-Black Sea basin has been taken offline following Ukrainian strikes and navigation restrictions, according to The Moscow Times. Ukraine launched Operation MoLoChKa on July 6, initially targeting Russian-linked vessels in the Sea of Azov before expanding into the broader Black Sea. Russia retaliated with intensified attacks on Ukrainian ports, cutting Ukraine's grain exports by 75% in the first two weeks of August, Reuters Thomson Reuters Corporation ↘ 0.07% reported.marinelink+2

"What moves the market is a change in expectations, and Russia will not be able to ship as much wheat by several millions of tons because the capacity to ship out of the Black Sea has been significantly damaged," said William Osnato, Barchart director of commodity data research and analysis.cnbc

U.S. Crop Concerns Compound the Pressure

Corn's rally, meanwhile, is rooted in worsening U.S. supply expectations. The USDA's August WASDE report cut its corn yield forecast by 2.3 bushels per acre to 180.7, more than traders anticipated. Field observations from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found that extreme July heat had damaged the crop after excessive June rainfall across much of the Corn Belt. A summer-long heat wave and drought in Europe further tightened global corn supplies, prompting the USDA to raise U.S. export projections by 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion.cnbc

"We thought the world was going to be bailed out by the U.S. supply. Now the U.S. supply is becoming questionable, and the market's moving up into a rationing mode," Jim McCormick, co-founder of AgMarket.Net, told CNBC.cnbc

Food Security Risks Mount for Major Importers

The supply squeeze is already hitting import-dependent nations. Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, sourced more than 82% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026. Russian 12.5% protein wheat was offered at around $298.5 per metric ton as of August 26, up from $282.6 in early July, according to S&P Global ↘ 0.62%. Egypt has begun turning to French wheat to fill the gap, but freight costs from more distant origins are adding further pressure to import bills. Prolonged disruptions could strain the country's subsidized bread program, a cornerstone of its food support system.ukragroconsult+3