UN warns Hormuz disruptions threaten global economy

United Nations officials at the World Investment Forum 2026 in Doha warned that supply chain disruptions and higher energy costs caused by the Middle East conflict are a serious threat to global economic stability, Bastille Post reported. Their warning came as a new Deloitte analysis described how trouble in the Strait of Hormuz is spreading through oil, gas, fertilizer and shipping markets and pushing up inflation.bastillepost.com

Costs spread beyond the Gulf

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) figures show that about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade and a third of its seaborne fertilizer pass through the strait. Disruptions there have raised energy, freight and insurance costs since the start of the year, according to Bastille Post. Sri Lanka's trade minister, Wasantha Samarasinghe, said his country depends entirely on imported oil, so the higher prices feed into production, transportation and logistics costs.bastillepost.com

Investment is also suffering. UNCTAD's latest Global Investment Trends Monitor, released on October 25 as the forum opened, found that greenfield project announcements in West Asia fell 52% in the first half of 2026. Over the same period, tourism projects worldwide fell 28% and transportation and storage projects fell 22%. Abdallah Al Dardari of the UN Development Programme said the crisis's effects would last "at least five years" even if it ended now, Bastille Post reported.unctad.org+1

Deloitte maps the damage

Deloitte's October Economic Insider cites International Energy Agency data showing more than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf oil production was still offline in August. Gulf crude exports that month were about 45% below pre-conflict levels. Brent crude traded above $105 a barrel on September 24, and Dutch TTF gas futures were 125% above pre-conflict levels on September 23.deloitte.com

Fertilizer is under pressure too. Saudi nitrogen fertilizer shipments fell 63% in the first half of the year, and the FAO food price index rose 6.4% between February and August. The International Maritime Organization has confirmed 24 seafarer deaths in 120 incidents in and around the strait. The Baltic dirty tanker index, which tracks crude freight rates, is more than four times its level of a year ago, Deloitte noted.deloitte.com

Inflation and tighter policy

Deloitte said US energy inflation hit 23.7% in May. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, its first increase since 2023. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have each raised rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, and the 10-year Treasury yield reached a 19-year high on September 24, according to the analysis.deloitte.com

UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan noted at the forum's closing that the meeting took place "at a challenging moment for this region." Even so, more than 7,000 people registered to attend.unctad.org