Taiwan arms sale looms over Trump-Xi summit this week

A proposed $14 billion U.S. arms package to Taiwan is emerging as one of the most sensitive issues ahead of a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the White House on September 24. Beijing is pressing Washington to maintain its freeze on the sale, while Taiwan watches nervously from the sidelines as its fate is bargained over by the world's two largest powers.

A "Negotiating Chip" on Hold

The package — which includes missiles, anti-drone systems, and air-defense infrastructure — has been ready for presidential approval for months but remains stalled. Trump described the deal as a "very good negotiating chip" after his May summit with Xi in Beijing, and his administration has since muted public references to Taiwan, with officials including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth conspicuously avoiding mention of the island in speeches.nytimes

Reports suggest Trump plans to delay the package at least until after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in November. For Beijing, even the delay itself is a win. Xi could hint at potential costs if Trump approves the sale, including further restrictions on Chinese rare earth exports or skipping the Group of 20 summit in Miami in December, which Trump is set to host.yahoo+1

"There's only one issue that could cause relations between both sides to break down completely or erupt in conflict, and that is Taiwan," said Xin Qiang, director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University.nytimes

Taiwan's Growing Unease

A poll released Monday by Taiwan's United Daily News found that 47 percent of respondents lack confidence that the United States will continue military aid and arms sales to the island, slightly exceeding the 44 percent who remained confident. A separate finding from the same annual survey showed 53 percent of Taiwanese favor a "permanent status quo" in cross-strait relations, while support for independence rose to 32 percent, up from 25 percent a year earlier.scmp+1

The delayed arms sale poses a domestic challenge for Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te, who has promoted increased military spending partly to meet Washington's own demands that partners invest more in defense. Ryan Hass, a former National Security Council director for China and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told The New York Times News Corp ↗ 0.61% that Beijing's strategy is to drag out the process so that China's military modernization outpaces Taiwan's acquisition of capabilities.nytimes

Broader Stakes in Washington

Despite the tensions, working-level security ties between Washington and Taipei remain steady. During Taiwan's annual Han Kuang military exercises last month, American advisers were more visible than in past years. Taiwan has also surpassed China as the third-largest source of U.S. imports this year, driven largely by semiconductors from TSMC Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ↗ 1.91% that sustain the American artificial intelligence boom.nytimes

Still, Taiwan is expected to take a back seat at the summit to trade, AI governance, and the Iran war. The German Marshall Fund's Bonnie Glaser told Semafor that Xi will likely "warn that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan would undermine the leaders' consensus on having a relationship of constructive strategic stability". U.S. and Chinese officials concluded preparatory talks in New York on Sunday, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling the discussions "very successful," though no major agreement was announced.aljazeera+1