Oil supermajors set to post $45.8B in quarterly profit amid Iran war windfall

The world's largest oil companies are poised to report their strongest combined quarterly earnings since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy crisis, as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove a historic disruption to global oil supplies in the second quarter of 2026.

A Bonanza Quarter for the Industry

Analysts project the five Western supermajors — ExxonMobil Exxon Mobil Corporation ↗ 0.17%, Chevron ↘ 0.97%, Shell ↘ 1.34%, BP ↘ 1.85%, and TotalEnergies ↘ 0.84% — will post approximately $45.8 billion in combined profit for the April-to-June period, according to industry forecasts. Exxon is expected to report about $15.9 billion in adjusted net income, with Chevron forecast at roughly $9.9 billion — each more than triple their first-quarter results, according to LSEG estimates cited by Reuters.Reuters+2

The surge stems from Brent crude prices averaging around $97 per barrel during the quarter, up 45% from $67 a year earlier, after Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz. The Dallas Federal Reserve estimated the closure removed close to 20% of global oil supplies from the market.DallasFed+1

European Majors Ride Trading Volatility

European oil majors with large commodity trading operations have been particular beneficiaries. Shell flagged "significantly higher trading and optimisation" profits in its Q2 update, even as the conflict cut its Qatari gas production nearly in half. TotalEnergies, which reported its second-quarter results on Wednesday, signaled that extended energy price rises would lift its profits, with Bank of America estimating clean net income of around $6.5 billion.IG+2

Norway's Equinor ↘ 0.54% reported Q2 results on July 21 showing net income of $4.84 billion and adjusted operating income of $11.48 billion, driven by liquids prices averaging $97.9 per barrel and strong crude trading performance. CEO Anders Opedal said the company "captured value from higher prices, contributing to strong cash flow and financial results."Equinor+1

Political Scrutiny Looms

The profits arrive amid growing political tension. Reuters reported that the earnings boom is "courting a possible clash" with President Donald Trump, who has been pressing Big Oil to bring down gasoline prices ahead of November's midterm elections. An analysis published by The Guardian in April estimated the top 100 oil and gas companies were earning more than $30 million per hour in windfall profits during the initial weeks of the conflict.theguardian+1

The industry's strongest quarter in years underscores a familiar paradox: the same geopolitical crisis that disrupted production and raised costs for consumers has proved enormously profitable for the companies positioned to trade around the volatility.