GCC Q2 earnings set to expose uneven toll of Iran war

Gulf Cooperation Council companies are entering an earnings season that will provide the clearest financial picture yet of how the ongoing Iran conflict has reshaped the region's corporate landscape, with analysts expecting a mixed bag of results that vary sharply by sector and geography.

Banks and Real Estate Hit Hardest

As GCC firms begin reporting second-quarter results, the banking and property sectors appear most exposed to the war's fallout. Banks across the Gulf are forecast to post single-digit declines in Q2 profits compared with the previous quarter, according to Elena Sánchez-Cabezudo, head of financial equities research at EFG Hermes, who cited lower fee income linked to weaker trade finance and reduced credit card spending on international travel.straitstimes+1

SABIC Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, the Saudi petrochemicals giant, is expected to report a net loss of SAR 308 million (approximately $82 million) in Q2 2026, according to a Riyad Capital earnings preview published Saturday. The company will host its earnings call on July 30. Meanwhile, telecommunications companies have been largely sheltered by long-term contracts and relatively inelastic demand.atalayar+3

Energy: Disruption Meets Higher Prices

Energy companies face a dual reality. The four-month conflict disrupted supply chains and infrastructure, but surging prices from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz also generated windfalls for some producers. HSBC has raised its Brent crude forecast to $95 per barrel for 2026 and estimates average prices for Q2 reached $114. Saudi Aramco posted a 25 percent year-over-year increase in first-quarter profits to $32.5 billion, benefiting from the price surge.aljazeera+1

Divergent Regional Fortunes

The war's impact has split along geographic lines. Reuters reported last week that Saudi Arabia and Oman are faring better due to less reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, while the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait face economic contractions. Fitch Solutions now expects GCC real GDP to contract by 0.8 percent in 2026, a dramatic downgrade from its pre-conflict forecast of 4.9 percent growth.reuters+2

IPO activity has also suffered, with GCC companies raising just $437 million through listings in Q1 2026, a 73 percent decline from a year earlier. The earnings season now underway will test whether the region's corporate sector can stabilize — or whether the war's financial toll is still deepening.instagram