Bank of America forecasts up to 20% memory price rise in September

Bank of America ↗ 1.88% expects spot prices for DRAM and NAND memory chips to climb another 10% to 20% in September, as a worsening supply-demand imbalance collides with the traditional peak season for electronics production.finance.biggo+1

The forecast, issued by BofA analyst Vivek Arya's semiconductor team this week, underscores the severity of a memory market crisis that has sent prices soaring over the past year. The 16Gb DDR4 spot price has surged roughly 879% year-over-year, according to the bank's analysis, while supply fulfillment rates for major buyers have fallen sharply. TrendForce data from August 28 shows DDR4 16Gb chips trading at session averages above $91, with DDR5 16Gb chips averaging around $54.news.futunn+1

A Supply Crisis Deepens

The memory shortage traces back to a structural reallocation of manufacturing capacity. As Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix ↘ 0.35%, and Micron Technology ↘ 0.27% have pivoted production toward high-bandwidth memory for AI data centers, conventional DRAM and NAND supplies for consumer electronics have thinned dramatically. Order fulfillment rates, which had already dropped to around 70% in late 2025, have continued to deteriorate.enkiai+2

Retail memory prices reflect the squeeze. According to Tom's Hardware and TechPowerUp, DDR5 kit prices in the United States have climbed as much as 500% over the past 12 months, with a 64GB DDR5-6000 kit now exceeding $1,200.techpowerup+1

BofA Stays Bullish on Nvidia

Alongside the memory outlook, Bank of America reaffirmed its bullish stance on Nvidia ↘ 4.58%, which remains Arya's top overall semiconductor pick. In an August note, the analyst projected Nvidia revenue of $94 billion to $95 billion for the upcoming quarter, roughly $3 billion to $4 billion above the company's own guidance, driven by sustained AI infrastructure spending.finance.yahoo+1

Arya has maintained a Buy rating on Nvidia throughout 2026, raising his price target to $320 in May as the agentic AI buildout accelerated demand for GPU and networking hardware. BofA also holds a Buy rating on SK Hynix, calling its dominance in high-bandwidth memory a foundation for a "profit super-cycle".finance.yahoo+2

No Relief in Sight

Industry forecasters see little prospect of easing before 2027 at the earliest. Contract prices have risen 58% to 63% quarter-over-quarter through mid-2026 for conventional DRAM, with NAND climbing even faster. VersaLogic, a supply chain partner to enterprise buyers, recently advised customers to plan for monthly price increases of 10% to 20% through the end of the year.versalogic+1

"We're witnessing a structural shift in the memory industry," Arya said during a CNBC appearance in June.cnbc