Gold ETFs log third-largest monthly inflow on record

Gold held above $4,400 an ounce on Tuesday as analysts at Société Générale outlined what they described as a structural shift in the precious metal's 2026 bull market, with bullish positioning now spanning physical holdings, futures contracts, and options strategies across every major category of market participant.

A 'New Phase' Backed by Record Flows

In a report published Monday, Société Générale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem said gold has "entered a new phase of its 2026 bull run, one defined less by speculative momentum and more by broad-based, structural conviction." What began earlier this year as a geopolitical shock has, in their assessment, "evolved over the following months into something far more durable: a synchronised build-up of physical, futures, and options exposure that now spans retail investors, professional money managers, and derivatives traders alike."kitco+1

The analysts highlighted that gold-backed ETFs attracted 201 tonnes of net inflows in August, the third-largest monthly addition on record in tonnage terms, trailing only February 2009 and March 2020. On the futures side, money managers' net positioning reached the second-largest long exposure on record in notional terms, behind only January 2026, when gold hit an all-time high above $5,400 an ounce.fxstreet+1

Cross-Currents Keep Gold Range-Bound for Now

Despite the constructive positioning backdrop, gold faces near-term headwinds. Stronger-than-expected August payrolls data — showing 162,000 jobs added versus a consensus of 56,000 — have lifted expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at its Sept. 15-16 meeting to roughly 60%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. A weaker U.S. dollar, driven partly by a surging Japanese yen after hawkish Bank of Japan repricing, has provided an offsetting tailwind.fxstreet+1

Investors are now focused on Thursday's producer price index and Friday's consumer price index releases, which could tip the balance on rate-hike expectations heading into the Fed meeting.tmgm+1

Structural Supports Underpin Long-Term Case

Société Générale said it remains "strategically bullish" on gold, pointing to a post-2022 regime shift in which the metal has traded near record levels despite persistently positive real yields. Central bank purchases — particularly from China — dedollarisation trends, and sovereign debt concerns are providing what the bank calls a higher floor for prices. The analysts argued that even expected rate hikes would leave policy below the Atlanta Fed's Taylor Rule model, suggesting inflation risks remain underpriced.kitco

"As speculative demand fades and official-sector buying remains robust, central banks are increasingly becoming the key anchor for the gold market," Haigh and Sellem wrote.kitco