Panama Canal warns daily transits could fall to 27

The Panama Canal could see daily ship crossings fall to as few as 27 vessels in the coming months, canal administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta warned, as a worsening El Niño-driven drought threatens water levels at one of the world's most important trade routes. The potential reduction, described as a "worst-case scenario" modeled on rainfall patterns from 1997 — the canal's driest year on record — would represent a steep drop from the already reduced cap of 32 daily transits set to take effect on September 15, according to the Financial Times.ft+2

Restrictions Already Under Way

The Panama Canal Authority began implementing its first transit restrictions of 2026 on September 3, cutting daily crossings from 36 to 34 vessels. A further reduction to 32 is scheduled for September 15, with Panamax lock slots falling from 25 to 23 while Neopanamax capacity remains capped at nine.freightwaves+2

The measures follow a 34% drop in accumulated rainfall and a 44% decline in water inflows to the canal's watershed since May, the authority said in an advisory issued August 20. The canal's lock system relies on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to raise and lower ships between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, and each transit consumes large volumes of water.reuters+3

A Potentially Record El Niño

Scientists expect the current El Niño to rank among the strongest on record. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has estimated a greater than 90% likelihood that El Niño will escalate to "very strong" intensity between late 2026 and early 2027. Canal administrator Ricaurte Vásquez said the dry season, which normally begins in December, could arrive at least a month early, and rainfall during October and November is expected to fall below average.dw+2

Authorities are trying to preserve enough freshwater to sustain operations through a dry season that could last until April or May 2027. One bright spot: a planned draft reduction for the largest Neopanamax vessels was delayed on September 4 after water levels in Gatun Lake held steady near 84 feet.africanews+1

Stakes for Global Trade

About 5% of global maritime trade passes through the 50-mile waterway. An auction for a transit slot this month reached a record $5.3 million for a September 1 passage, compared with a typical range of $50,000 to $100,000, according to a Panamanian maritime industry official cited by AFP. The canal's experience in 2023, when crossings were slashed to just 22 vessels a day, offers a cautionary benchmark — that episode cut traffic by roughly 36% and rippled through global supply chains.aljazeera+2

Operational restrictions are now projected to extend into early 2027. As Al Jazeera reported, the canal's limits come at a time when shippers are already contending with disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, compounding pressure on global maritime logistics.telesurenglish+1