WTO report finds Gulf conflict severely disrupted fertilizer trade

The World Trade Organization has released a new report finding that the Persian Gulf conflict has "severely disrupted" global trade in urea and phosphate fertilizers, raising alarm over food security as major agricultural nations face supply shortfalls heading into critical planting seasons.

Strait of Hormuz Blockage Chokes Supply

The WTO data blog, published July 10, details how fertilizer shipments across the Persian Gulf virtually stopped after the conflict erupted in February 2026, with urea prices surging from around $400 per metric ton to over $850 per metric ton in April before easing to $453 in June. The report highlights that fertilizer producers have imposed export restrictions affecting as much as 15 percent of global fertilizer trade.wto+2

The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which approximately one-third of all fertilizer shipped globally passes, according to NPR. The near-total collapse of tanker traffic through the strait — which the FAO estimates fell by more than 90 percent — forced Gulf producers to slash exports. WTO Deputy Director-General Jean-Marie Paugam warned earlier this year that if Gulf fertilizers do not circulate, "we will feel a direct impact on supplies to major producer countries just as planting seasons begin".al-monitor+2

Brazil Among Most Vulnerable

The WTO report specifically highlights the vulnerability of major fertilizer importers such as Brazil, which imports more than 80 percent of its fertilizers. Brazil's Agriculture Ministry has classified the fertilizer supply outlook as posing "extremely high risk" to the 2026/27 harvest, warning that the Hormuz closure and Chinese phosphate export restrictions are converging to threaten food production.thedocs.worldbank+3

A University of Illinois analysis noted that Brazil became more dependent on imported fertilizers over the past five years, with a record 49 million metric tons imported in 2025. The country has since begun exploring paths toward fertilizer independence, though near-term alternatives remain limited.rfdtv+1

Broader Food Security Concerns

The World Bank reported that urea prices surged nearly 46 percent month-on-month between February and March 2026. The FAO has warned that energy price shocks and trade route disruptions "are setting the stage for sharper price increases in the months ahead". FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero noted that "the reduction in Gulf exports leads to an immediate global deficit without quick alternatives," given the absence of strategic international fertilizer reserves.npr+1

The WTO's findings come as trade economists project global trade growth will slow in 2026, with the Middle East conflict weighing heavily on shipping and commodity markets.youtube