Wall Street banks converge on $5,000 gold forecast

A growing chorus of Wall Street banks is forecasting that gold will approach or exceed $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, even as strong U.S. employment data and the prospect of another Federal Reserve rate hike weigh on the non-yielding metal. Goldman Sachs ↘ 1.03%, RBC Capital Markets, State Street, and Citi have all issued bullish outlooks in recent weeks, citing central bank accumulation and fiscal sustainability concerns as forces powerful enough to override traditional headwinds.

Investment Banks Line Up Behind Gold

Goldman Sachs Research reiterated its end-of-2026 target of $4,900 per ounce in late August, noting that central bank purchasing continues to underpin the market. RBC Capital Markets Royal Bank of Canada ↘ 1.14% followed on September 2, forecasting $4,929 by year-end and $5,296 in 2027. "We remain of the view that gold should spend most of its time in the $4,500–$5,000 range for what remains of this year," said RBC analyst Christopher Louney. State Street Investment Management projected $5,000, while Citi set near-term and medium-term targets of $4,800 and $5,000, respectively.scmp+3

Bank of America ↘ 3.04% strategist Michael Hartnett placed emphasis on the broader policy environment, arguing that policymakers' efforts to suppress bond yields favor staying long commodities and gold as a hedge against currency debasement. BofA fund flow data showed gold attracted $3.2 billion for the week ending September 2, outpacing equity inflows of $2.8 billion — the lowest equity figure in nine weeks.finance.biggo

Central Banks and ETFs Drive the Rally

The World Gold Council reported that global physically-backed gold ETFs recorded $17 billion in net inflows in August, reversing two months of outflows. Central bank net demand reached 345 tonnes in the first half of 2026, with official institutions purchasing 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter alone — a 62% increase year-over-year. Tony Kim, Goldman Sachs's global head of metals trading, noted that before the Russia-Ukraine war, central banks bought roughly 400 to 500 tonnes annually; that figure has since doubled to around 1,000 to 1,100 tonnes.investing+2

WGC senior analyst Krishan Gopaul emphasized that the recent price surge was driven primarily by speculative futures positioning and ETF inflows, not by physical retail demand.finance.biggo

Risks Remain as Fed Decision Looms

Spot gold closed near $4,441 on September 4, down sharply from contract highs near $4,755 in late August after hawkish signals lifted Treasury yields and the dollar. Markets are pricing in roughly a 60% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 16 meeting. The August Consumer Price Index report, due September 11, is expected to be a near-term catalyst: a soft reading could ease rate hike expectations and boost gold, while a hot print could add further pressure.investing

"The only consistent flow that remains is central bank accumulation," Kim said, adding that $4,000 per ounce represents "a fairly solid floor" where sovereign and institutional buyers are likely to step in.news.futunn