UN chief warns El Nino pushing world into ‘uncharted territory’ amid accelerating warming

Earth is warming at nearly twice the pace it was just a decade ago, and scientists say they can now prove it with statistical confidence for the first time — a finding that places the world on a path to breach the Paris Agreement's most ambitious temperature limit before the end of this decade.

A Near-Doubling in Warming Rate

Research published in Geophysical Research Letters by Grant Foster, a retired statistician in Maine, and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research shows with over 98% statistical certainty that global warming has accelerated since 2015. After filtering out natural variability from El Niño events, volcanic eruptions, and solar variations, the researchers found the underlying warming rate has climbed to approximately 0.35°C (0.63°F) per decade — up from just under 0.2°C per decade during the period from 1970 to 2015.pik-potsdam+3

"We can now demonstrate a strong and statistically significant acceleration of global warming since around 2015," Foster said in a statement accompanying the study's release earlier this year.news.agu

The paper represents the first time researchers have established warming acceleration at such a high confidence level. As Nature ↘ 1.96% reported, the finding addresses one of the most contentious debates in climate science — whether the surge in global temperatures since 2023 reflects a fundamental shift or merely short-term variability.nature

Paris Agreement Limit at Risk Before 2030

If the current trajectory holds, all major temperature records will exceed 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels before 2030, according to the researchers. Long-term exceedance of that threshold could trigger multiple climate tipping points, including breakdowns of major ocean circulation systems, abrupt thawing of boreal permafrost, and collapse of tropical coral reef ecosystems.gizmodo+1

"How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly we reduce global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to zero," Rahmstorf said.pik-potsdam

El Niño Compounds the Crisis

The study's findings have gained fresh urgency this week as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that a strengthening El Niño is pushing the world into "uncharted territory". Speaking at a news conference in New York on Friday, Guterres said Pacific Ocean temperatures driving the current El Niño have reached unprecedented levels, with sea-surface temperatures in key monitoring regions expected to average nearly 3°C above normal.aa

"The verdict is clear: the climate crisis is in overdrive," Guterres said, calling on governments to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.aa

So far, 2026 ranks as the third-hottest year on record behind 2024 and 2025, but forecasters expect that ranking to change as El Niño intensifies through autumn. Parts of Central and Eastern Europe are already experiencing temperatures 5 to 10°C above normal this week.foxla+1

"Stopping this trend is in our hands," Foster and Rahmstorf wrote. "Studies show that global warming will stop around the time humanity reaches zero CO2 emissions, but it can hardly be reversed."gizmodo