Swiss Re warns Europe faces ‘chronic’ heat and wildfire risk

As Europe endures its fifth heat wave of 2026, Swiss Re ↘ 0.35% Institute issued a warning on Tuesday about the "chronic" and potentially underestimated consequences of the continent's rising temperatures, with wildfire risk demanding particular attention from insurers and policymakers alike.

A Continent on Fire

"As heat in Europe increases, wildfire-conducive conditions are likely to become more frequent," Swiss Re Institute said in its report published August 11. Wildfires fueled by extreme heat in France, Spain, and Greece have caused an estimated €19.1 billion ($22 billion) in total damage and economic loss this summer, according to a preliminary estimate by AccuWeather. More than 25,000 people have died from heat-related causes across Europe this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.insurancejournal+2

The fires have consumed over 1.23 million acres of land, primarily in Spain, France, and Italy, displacing hundreds of thousands of people, according to an August 6 EU report cited by CNN. Since the start of the year, 1,254 wildfires have been recorded across EU countries — more than twice the historical average of 569.cnn+1

Rising Temperatures, Rising Costs

Europe's temperatures are climbing at nearly twice the global average rate, with the continent now experiencing 64% more hot days — defined as days reaching 30°C or higher — than in the 1950s, Swiss Re Institute found. "Europe's recent wildfires highlight how hotter and drier conditions are making large wildfires more likely, and — with more homes, businesses and infrastructure built in risk-exposed areas — also more costly," said Balz Grollimund, head of catastrophe perils at Swiss Re.insurancejournal

The warning comes even as insured losses from natural catastrophes in the first half of 2026 stood at $42 billion, which Swiss Re Institute described as "well below the long-term trend". But the reinsurer cautioned that "a quiet first half is not necessarily indicative of below-average annual losses" and that the long-term upward trend in insured losses remains intact.insurancejournal

An Industry Bracing for a New Era

The report follows a July warning by Munich Re, which flagged the "dangerous mix" posed by El Niño and global warming. Globally, wildfire insured losses have grown by around 12% annually in real terms since 1970 — faster than any other major weather peril, Grollimund told Reuters in late July. Europe's "extensive wildland–urban interface zones mean that a severe fire near densely populated areas could still generate substantial economic losses," Swiss Re Institute said.reuters+1