Saudi crude exports hit four-month high amid Iran ceasefire window

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports climbed to 4.125 million barrels per day in July, a roughly 3.3% increase from June and the highest level since March, according to data published Tuesday by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI). The rise was underpinned by a rebound in production to 8.135 million bpd from 7.122 million bpd the prior month, as a brief ceasefire in the Iran conflict allowed Persian Gulf output to recover.reuters+2

Production Rebound During Ceasefire Window

Saudi Arabia told OPEC it pumped 8.2 million bpd in July, up from 7.1 million bpd in June, according to a Bloomberg report citing an OPEC document — still several million barrels below pre-conflict levels. The broader OPEC group saw output among its seven directly reporting members rise by 1.88 million bpd, with Iraq and Saudi Arabia accounting for the bulk of the increase.worldoil

"Saudi crude and product exports increased in July as regional tensions moderated," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters, though he cautioned that exports could be weaker in August, particularly from Red Sea terminals, because of renewed tensions involving the Houthis.reuters

Geopolitical Risks Cloud the Outlook

The July export gains now appear fragile. Drone attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut its East-West Pipeline on September 13, cutting off flows to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The kingdom resumed pipeline operations and exports from Yanbu were expected to follow on Tuesday, according to Reuters, citing three sources briefed on the matter.reuters

Houthi fighters have pushed to seize strategic positions in Yemen to cut off the Red Sea coast from areas held by Saudi-backed forces, after reports that U.S. President Donald Trump called off American strikes on the group at the last minute. Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States eases military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports.reuters

OPEC+ Quota Dynamics Add Complexity

In early July, seven OPEC+ members — including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — agreed to raise output by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, citing tentative signs of recovery in energy markets. Saudi refinery crude throughput, meanwhile, edged lower in July to 2.478 million bpd from 2.498 million bpd, and direct crude-burning fell by about 22,000 bpd.marinelink+2

The combination of rising exports, fragile ceasefire conditions, and pipeline disruptions leaves the near-term trajectory of Saudi oil flows uncertain heading into the final quarter of 2026.