Goldman sees Anthropic revenue at $685 billion by 2030

Goldman Sachs The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ↘ 0.10% research analysts expect Anthropic's revenue to reach roughly $685 billion by 2030, according to a person familiar with the estimates cited by Bloomberg. The forecast came out on November 10, the same day Anthropic's banks began pitching its initial public offering to investors. The Financial Times reported the forecast first, saying Goldman expects revenue to exceed $600 billion by the end of the decade, about 130 times 2025 sales, with the company turning cash flow positive by then.finance.yahoo.com+1

The numbers back the deal's target of a fully diluted value of about $1.4 trillion, according to Bloomberg. Representatives for Goldman Sachs and Anthropic declined to comment.bloomberg.com

Inside the model

Goldman's research team expects enterprise clients to make up $586 billion of annual sales by 2030, with non-enterprise revenue at about $100 billion, the person told Bloomberg, citing a verbal briefing. Bloomberg described the total as nearly 150 times the $4.59 billion Anthropic earned in 2025. That is higher than the FT's 130-times figure, likely because the FT used the round $600 billion number.finance.yahoo.com

The bank does not expect Anthropic to produce positive annual free cash flow until 2030, given its heavy spending. Goldman's team projects compute infrastructure spending will grow more than tenfold to nearly $400 billion by the end of the decade, though compute profit is expected to rise by a similar amount, Bloomberg reported. Coverage of the projections puts 2030 free cash flow at $33.6 billion.cryptobriefing.com+1

The IPO math

Banks met with prospective buyers on Tuesday morning. The offering aims to raise $90.4 billion, including a $26 billion private placement, and is set to price on Wednesday, November 18, with trading starting the next day, according to deal terms reviewed by Bloomberg. Anthropic has proposed selling 825 million shares at $70 to $78 each. Its last private funding round, in May, valued it at $965 billion.cryptobriefing.com+1

Recent growth gives the forecast some support. Anthropic made about $33.2 billion in revenue in the first nine months of 2026, up from roughly $2.5 billion a year earlier. However, sequential growth slowed to 47% in the third quarter, according to figures from its filing. The company also has about $895 billion in future compute and infrastructure commitments.roic.ai

Skepticism remains

Goldman is a lead underwriter on the deal alongside Morgan Stanley ↗ 0.25%, and its figures are an analyst estimate, not company guidance. Investors still have to decide whether AI valuations reflect a realistic path for the technology or overconfidence in an investment theme that hasn't yet proven it will last.finance.yahoo.com