Russia’s crude exports hit post-invasion high as revenues sink

Russia's seaborne crude oil shipments have climbed to their highest level since before Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, even as collapsing global oil prices are dragging down the Kremlin's export revenues to their lowest point since March.

Record Flows Hit the Water

Four-week average crude shipments rose to 4.13 million barrels a day in the period to June 28, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg — the highest since early 2022, when Russia still sent much of its oil by pipeline to Western Europe. The surge marks a sharp acceleration from 3.83 million barrels a day just two weeks earlier and 3.66 million in late May.bloomberg+3

The spike has been driven largely by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, which have knocked out domestic processing capacity and pushed crude that would otherwise have been refined at home onto international markets. By late June, fuel rationing had been reported in more than half of Russia's regions as refinery outages choked domestic supply.reuters+2

Falling Prices Squeeze Revenue

While volumes have surged, the value of Russia's shipments has moved in the opposite direction. Prices for Moscow's key export grades have tumbled following the U.S.-Iran framework peace deal announced in mid-June, which raised expectations that flows through the Strait of Hormuz would resume. Bloomberg reported that Baltic-loading cargoes are now worth half what they fetched in early May, driving Russia's oil earnings to their lowest since March.thenationalnews+3

Brent crude fell more than 5% after the deal was announced, and prices have continued to slide as the prospect of additional Iranian and Gulf supply returning to market has compounded broader oversupply concerns.bbc+1

Global Glut Deepens

The flood of Russian barrels is adding to an already oversupplied global market. Bloomberg reported that the amount of Russian oil at sea has climbed by roughly a third from a mid-April low, with cargoes building up near Egypt and Singapore — a signal that Moscow may be struggling to find buyers for all its crude. The International Energy Agency had previously warned of a potential surplus reaching as high as 4 million barrels per day in 2026 as OPEC+ producers and competitors ramp up output while demand growth remains subdued.reuters+1

Russia also faces stiffer competition from Iran, whose cargoes have been freed up by a U.S. sanctions waiver tied to the peace negotiations. The combination of rising supply from multiple producers and weak demand growth continues to weigh on oil prices, leaving Moscow with record export volumes but diminishing returns.bloomberg