Russia rehearsed wars against NATO in secret simulations since 2017, investigation finds

Russian generals have spent years rehearsing hypothetical wars against NATO and its partners through secret computer simulations, according to an investigation by the Dossier Center, a Russian investigative organization, published on Tuesday.kyivpost+1

The investigation found that Russia's military leadership began seriously preparing for possible conflict with NATO no later than 2017, running exercises at the General Staff's Military Academy on the outskirts of Moscow, where an underground War Games Center is designed to resemble a military command post.kyivpost

Baltic and Pacific Scenarios

In March 2017, Russian generals and senior military academy students participated in a multiday strategic simulation that appeared to involve operations near Gotland, a strategically important Swedish island in the Baltic Sea. Investigators identified the scenario after analyzing a photograph published by the academy, in which a reflection in glass doors revealed a map displayed on the screen behind participants. The exercise was titled "Strategic Deterrence," a Russian military term covering measures intended to prevent an attack by demonstrating the ability to inflict unacceptable damage on an opponent.geo+1

A separate war game held in 2018 involved more than 900 officers and simulated a conflict with US and Japanese forces. Participants controlled roughly 320,000 virtual troops, and investigators found unblurred footage displaying parts of Japan's Hokkaido and Aomori prefectures, which host key US-Japanese military facilities.kyivpost+1

Failures in Modeling the Ukraine Invasion

By 2021, Russian commanders in the Southern Military District were instructed to conduct war-game exercises every month, as Russia began deploying troops near Ukraine's borders. Yet the Dossier Center concluded that Russian commanders apparently failed to model the invasion of Ukraine accurately. Military analyst David Sharp told investigators that war games yield valuable results only when based on accurate assessments of both sides' capabilities, adding that in authoritarian systems, commanders may avoid worst-case scenarios because leaders expect positive reports.united24media+1

After Russia's initial attempt to seize Kyiv failed in early 2022, the General Staff organized new exercises incorporating battlefield lessons, including fragmented front lines, special operations activity, and resistance from cities behind Russian lines.geo+1

Growing Concerns Over Russian Intent

The revelations arrive amid heightened anxiety about Russian military planning. NATO itself conducted its first exercises on Gotland in May after Sweden joined the alliance in 2024, with 18,000 troops from 13 countries rehearsing a scenario involving a Russian landing on the island. The Dossier Center cautioned that the existence of a war-game scenario does not automatically prove Russia intends to launch an actual war against the simulated opponent. Still, the investigation concluded that NATO and its regional partners were likely represented as the opposing "red team" across the simulations, posing hypothetical threats to Russia from both west and east.RBC-Ukraine+2